Kalb says he expects the contest to disappoint Southern Democratic leaders, who structured the 20 simultaneous primaries in 1984 to improve the chances of party centrists for the nomination.

Because the Democrats allowed Super Tuesday to include border states and states like Massachusetts, Maryland, Washington, and Rhode Island, says Kalb, a clear assessment of the importance of the South as a voting bloc will not result.

Kalb says further that Gore may not get the strong campaign push he hopes for from his fellow Southerners. "If the polls are correct, either a candidate named 'undecided,' or a candidate named Dukakis, or a third candidate named Jackson may end up with all of the marbles, and not Gore," he says. "The strategy, even from the point of view of a Southern moderate Democrat, may backfire."

The K-School professor does believe, however, that the Democrats have a shot at the national contest in November. This depends on many factors, particularly the Republicans' choice of a nominee. "If it's Bush, I'll hold by my prediction. the Democrats can win," says Kalb of the wayward Vice President.

Three other important factors, he says, are the state of the economy, the choice of the Democratic running mate, and the pending results of the Iran-Contra investigation, which will have "consequences that are almost inevitably going to be negative for the Republican Party."

Amid persistent charges that the Democraticcontenders lack clear messages and identities inthis campaign, Kalb's assessment is that theDemocrats have generally done as well as theRepublicans in the use of paid media. He does, ofcourse, single out certain candidates from bothparties whom he says have done better thanaverage.

"Gephardt has done superbly well in the use ofnegative-sounding paid ads on television," saysKalb. "It certainly paid off for him in Iowa andSouth Dakota... I think in the South it's going tobe more dispersed and diffuse so that you're notgoing to get a clear, hard focus on the relativevalue of some of these negative ads." He adds thatGephardt may not have sufficient funds to achievea similar success tomorrow, while Dukakis and Goredo have enough money.

As for Jackson, who is expected to have astrong showing in the South tomorrow, Kalbreiterates that he is impressed with thecandidate's "powers of articulation" and "growth,"as well as his ability to attract white votes inprimarily white states "by the power of hismessage."

The candidate who seems to have gone thefarthest through the use of money and media--theRev. Pat Robertson--receives little praise fromKalb. "Since New Hampshire, Robertson hasconducted one of the most painful and patheticpolitical campaigns that I've seen in a longtime," says Kalb, citing Robertson's accusationsagainst the Bush campaign among other issues."This man has demonstrated a capacity forpolitical suicide that surprises me because [he]was one of the most effective performers [on`Candidates '88']."

Having established "Candidates '88" as aninfluential program, Kalb muses about the futureof his TV brainchild. "I would love to be able in'92 to do a series called "Candidates '92," hesays. "And on the basis of the reaction of the PBSnetwork, and the reaction of most of the peoplewho have written about the series, I think that itwill be realistic and that it will happen."

The former CBS and NBC correspondent ispessimistic, however, about the chances ofbringing a show like "Candidates '88" to a wideraudience through one of the major networks. "Theopportunities for serious, substantive journalismon the three major commercial networks today arelimited, severely limited," he says, and adds thatthis is a major reason why he left networktelevision.

In the meantime, Kalb says he "wouldn't besurprised" if, after this summer's conventions,PBS were to run a four-week series of interviewswith each of the presidential andvice-presidential nominees. Whether or not Americaviews this media expert as a bona fide pundit,that may be enough to catapult him back into theranks of Who's Who. And as any amateurpolitician can tell you, a public televisionaudience isn't NBC, but it's certainly better thana half-filled lecture hall