Not surprisingly, given who drew them up, theIndaba proposals (thus far rejected by the centralgovernment) suggest precisely the kind of outcomethat Huntington advocated in 1981: this is theleading consociational plan for South Africa. Itwould create a regionally autonomous governmentfor a combined Natal Province and Kwazulu, withtwo houses of parliament. One chamber would beelected at large, with universal adult franchise.But the other chamber would be formed throughracially-divided voters' rolls, with 10representatives for each racial or language groupand a final category for people choosing to vote a"nonracial" roll. Each separate bloc of Afrikaans,English, Zulu, Asian and 'non-racial'representatives would have veto power overimportant government decisions--which means anysingle group could block attempts to fundamentallyalter apartheid.
The Indaba, a South African observer wroterecently, continues to define political rights inracial terms, and involves "the maintenance ofeconomic structures and political control by ahighly conservative alliance with scant regard fordemocratic processes." (14) In fact, it looks verymuch like the "elite conspiracy" to whichHuntington referred back in 1981, as the probablypreferred outcome for his government-imposedreforms. Here we have assorted elites, negotiatinga settlement to which they plan to hold theirfollowers. The only difference is that theprocess, as he says in his 1986 article, can nolonger rely on a cooperative 'reformist' nationalgovernment.
But Huntington is no dreamer. Back in 1981, hewarned that "consociational arrangements tend tobreak down when increasing social mobilizationundermines the authority of the leaders whonegotiated the arrangement and new, youngerleaders appear." (15) Such mobilization wouldappear to have already occurred in South Africa,although not precisely along the communal linesHuntington expected. Today, there is widespreadopposition to the government, and broad oppositionto any reforms imposed either by government or byassorted elites. Despite massive repression,people of all races continue to organizeresistance to apartheid; white liberals and Blacksstill call for one-person, one-vote in a unitarySouth Africa. If the preconditions forconsociational solutions include control over themasses, South African consociationalism still hasa long way to go.
So why is Sam Huntington still talking aboutconsociationalism, (16) when his own theory tellsus it cannot happen? Consociationalism of theIndaba sort, involving negotiation among eliteswith clearly restrictive ground rules, would giveSouth Africa a democratic facade without changingthe basic inequities of apartheid. It wouldinclude Black faces in leadership, but wouldrequire massive repression of Black aspirations.Undoubtedly, it would continue to restrict popularparticipation decision-making at all levels. Thisis not a solution which would make most of uscomfortable, nor is it one most South Africansaccept. Which means that until groups likeWorrall's "reform consitutency" are willing tonegotiate a more democractic proposal, thelow-intensity civil war that exists there today islikely to continue.
How, then, do negotiations like the Indabaoffer Sam Huntington even a tiny ray of hope? Ifone were thoroughly cynical, one might go back toMachiavelli: political scientists who want to seetheir policies properly implemented will not urgedemocratization, because democratic governmentsdon't normally follow a single theoretican. Eliteconspiracies, however, just might. Less cynically,and certainly more truthfully, one might believethat Huntington fears the widespread dislocationsthat majority rule will bring to South Africa,when people of all races try to restructure asociety warped by centuries of racial oppression.When that restructuring finally begins, an electedBlack government will probably face violentcounter-reaction from people who now support thegovernment or parties even further to the right.One can only wonder whether Huntington willcondone reactionary violence by a governmentelected by the Black majority, as calmly as heapparently condoned repression of revolutionariesby the old regime.
Gay Seidman '78, an Overseer and formerpresident of the Crimson, is writing adissertation in sociology at the University ofCalifornia at Berkeley, comparing labor movementsin South Africa and Brazil. She is grateful toGarth, Megan and Gavin for pointing outHuntington's contributions in South Africa.