Which leaves Wendy Abt, unquestionably the most controversial candidate in the race. Every political conversation includes some gossip about Abt; no analyst can figure out exactly how she'll fare. She was repudiated by city tenants at a late-summer convention setting up a possible split in city progressive ranks (see story page). And she has been embraced by many self-styled moderates, for what is perceived as a "flexible" stand on housing issues like rent control and condominium conversion. If Abt runs well, it may be due less to the support of traditional CCA voters than to the backing of condominium owners and others uncomfortable with the strong stands of David Sullivan. Certainly she has spent the money to win--an insert into every copy of last Thursday's Cambridge Chronicle, for example, will catch a few eyes.
Though he's running with the Independents, Alfred E. Vellucci is sometimes referred to as the fifth CCA councilor. Without his vote, the two most important CCA stances--for rent control and against condominium conversion--would be impossible. And so the liberals badly need Vellucci, especially if they don't pick up a fifth seat. His seat appears fairly safe, though the 30-year council veteran never wins by large margins. He may lose some CCA transfers because of the crowded liberal field, but his East Cambridge power base appears strong enough to allow him to hold on.
Besides Walter Sullivan, a few other Independents should win without too much problem. Thomas Danehy, another former mayor, has only one thing to worry about--Donald Fantini, a former school committeeman making his first council bid, ran strong in his school races in Danehy's North Cambridge neighborhood. Still, Danehy is tougher than most city politicians. "Those are his votes, and there's no way he's letting go of them," one friend of the incumbent said last week.
Leonard J. Russell--who has had trouble winning when he's an incumbent--appears to be running stronger than usual this year. A term as vice-mayor has increased his visibility, and he seems to have raised more money than the other Independents. If there is one cloud on the political horizon for the Independent incumbents, though, it is the possibility of a very strong showing by Daniel Clinton. He was the last candidate eliminated in 1979; he has won before; and his campaign has been ironically helped by personal tragedy. His daughter Robin was killed in an accident two weeks ago, and the crowd that jammed the funeral was one of the largest in recent city history. Clinton probably had the edge on Fantini in the battle to replace Crane from the start, but the horror that has hit his home has probably solidified that lead.
Large ads showing a chain--with each link an Independent candidate (and Walter Sullivan's name in larger letters than the rest)--have appeared in many local papers in recent weeks. The slate-voting effort appears stronger than usual for these conservatives, who often fight for the same votes. And if it works--if the Independents are able to get voters to rank two or three candidates on their slate instead of bullet voting--then the CCA has almost no shot at a fifth seat.
And other forces may be hurting the CCA. The most controversial stance its members have taken in recent years was supporting a strong ban on condominium conversion, which had been quickly reducing Cambridge's rental housing stock. Many tenants wishing to buy their own units--and many developers wishing to buy units--have been angered by the anti-condo stand. Much of that feeling has coalesced behind the candidacy of Mary Allen Wilkes, a condominium owner in a building that was the scene of a nasty battle over illegal conversions earlier this year. Wilkes, a former CCA member, may take others like her away from the coalition. Should she be elected, she will likely side with liberals on issues other than housing; Her campaign has been getting more attention than expected, and if she does not win she seems prepared to run strong enough to scare the CCA. Many of her votes will likely transfer to Abt, who is also seen as a moderate on housing issues; Independent candidates backed by the Cambridge Condominium Network may also pick up some of Wilkes' support.
There are a handful of true Independents in the race, and one or two are running serious campaigns. John St. George, a lifelong Cambridge resident, is an ideological twin to David Sullivan on many issues, but rejects the CCA for its "elitism." He might turn in a showing good enough to let him run more credibly in 1983. And Alvin Thompson's vote will be an interesting test of the thesis that the fortunes of a Black candidate depend on a CCA endorsement. Thompson says the CCA's refusal to back him could help him in some quarters. Most observers, though, say that without CCA transfers he does not have even an outside shot at a seat.
Tuesday (sunshine helps the CCA) turn out its fickle voters, or so the legend goes) will be less tense than Wednesday, when the count begins. And the suspense will build straight through Thursday and probably well into Friday as the process continues. The CCA will elect four candidates--Graham, Duehay, David Sullivan and someone else, most likely Wolf--almost for certain; their bid at a fifth seat, then rests on a number of factors, some beyond their control:
Tremendously high slate allegiance among their own voters. As the count wears on, and candidates like Bob White and, most likely, Preusser are eliminated, their votes must transfer to others in the slate.
Lots of votes feeding in from other candidates, especially Wilkes, St. George and Thompson.
A very low transfer rate among the Independent candidates. If Fantini is eliminated, for instance, his votes must go either to Vellucci or out the window. If they end up behind Clinton, he will be elected.
If the CCA has a shot at a fifth seat, it won't be decided until the last two transfers. Clinton or Russell will be battling it out with Abt or Wylie, and it could be extremely close. But the late shift in momentum--and the nagging thought that there may just not be enough CCA voters in the city--indicate it may not come down to the wire at all, that the present equilibrium maintaining its precarious balance on Vellucci, will persist.
The off chance--the very off chance--exists that enough Independent votes will transfer to elect both Clinton and Fantini. But if the trends of the last few years are any indication, the old Cambridge these men represent is fading (in large part, ironically, through condo conversion and other policies they support). The conservatives will be hard pressed to increase their total, though a Wilkes victory might introduce a new alignment more to their liking.
What's glorious, though, is that nobody knows for sure. The Longfellow School will be crowded Wednesday when the count begins. It will stay crowded for a week, until, finally, the counting ends for another two years.