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Reagan: Reckless Over-confidence

Energy? "The problem isn't a shortage of fuel; it's a surplus of government."

Chrysler? "What's wrong with bankruptcy?"

Iran? The U.S. has to be respected "so no dictator will dare invade our embassy."

Reagan's stance on domestic social issues reflects his belief in local, private controls. Reagan fells welfare with one clause--reduce welfare cheating by returning it to the states. On national health insurance, Reagan announced in Private Practice, a medical magazine, "Virtually all Americans have access to excellent medical care today." Such a rosy outlook endears Reagan to some, but a growing number of disaffected attribute both the style and content to the gathering clouds in a graying cerebrum.

His fogginess makes it easy for staunch conservatives to choose to place their votes elsewhere in the quite extensive array of arch-conservative Republican candidates. Few real issues significantly separate him from his GOP competitors. A January survey of 225 corporation presidents conducted by Dun's Review showed as much support for Bush as for Reagan, Connally and Anderson combined.

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In New Hampshire, the Manchester Union-Leader is, not surprisingly, pouring buckets of ink behind Reagan. Meanwhile, over at his Concord, N.H., headquarters, staffers seem uneasily confident. Two people man Regan's Concord headquarters; an enormous man in a black leisure suit, hand scratching his expansive belly, and an exceedinly elderly woman, a little worried that someone has stopped by to talk.

"I think Mr. Reagan will start to pick up now--everybody likes him," she says. "Iowa showed we have to work," her friend adds.

That is the simplistic formula for Reagan success--counting on voters scared by the close Iowa finish to turn out and work. It's a chance, the same chance Howard Baker is depending on. But in Reagan's case it may prove dangerous. His support three months ago was a mile wide and an inch deep; people told pollsters they were for Ronald Reagan because they had heard of him.

Once Bush moved out of the asterisk category, however, Reagan found out just how flimsy a lot of his support was. To win it back, he will have to dance farther and farther to the right--a trick that even if successful in New Hampshire and Florida, could spell disaster in Massachusetts and some midwestern states.

Whatever he's done in the last two months has failed. Trying to stay high and dry above ths slush lost him Iowa. Descending into it has been an excursion into ethnic cracks and racial slurs. Sixty-nine year old Reagan insists that he's not tired but his actions belie those claims.

If Reagan's "national constituency" does not assert itself by the time Florida rolls around, it will be time to put the former actor out to pasture. They said it in '76, when he almost scared Gerry Ford out of the nomination, but this time it's for real. If he's going to capture enough votes to be taken seriously, Reagan will have to hire more than a few pollsters to set him straight again. Only then will he dare to step out of the motor-cade, without fear of being run over by a sweat-suited Bush

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