Larry Powers, press secretary for the Brown campaign, says his candidate must garner more than the 13 per cent he picked up in the Maine caucuses February 10. Otherwise "we will have to immediately reassess the whole campaign." But he does not think a reassessment of the Brown campaign would necessarily portend its demise. Says Powers: "Brown has said that whatever the New Hampshire results are, he still wants to campaign."

After New Hampshire and Massachusetts, the campaigns move south, where most Republicans are emphasizing Florida. Most, that is, except Connally. The key to the former Texas governor's "Southern strategy" is the South Carolina primary on March 8. Malone calls South Carolina "the important one" and predicts it will be a race among Reagan, Bush and Connally, with all three finishing tightly at the top.

A photo finish with the front-runners would put Connally "right in the thick of the battle" and have a "big influence" in the Florida primary three days later, in which Connally does not expect to do as well, Malone says. "if the election were held today in Florida, Connally would be third or fourth," Malone admits.

While acknowledging Connally's strength in the South, Thompson notes that most of Reagan's support in 1976 came from the South and West. "Southern voters tend not to change their minds over four years," he says. But he will not predict victory in Florida.

Cronin does not predict victory for Crane, either. Crane is stressing Florida, where he believes his name recognition is higher and where he will stage a more extensive media campaign than he has in New England. Cronin expects Crane to "run with the front-runners," meaning that if Bush receives 35 per cent of the Florida vote, Crane will garner 25 per cent.

From Bush's viewpoint, Florida is too close to call because Reagan has "a lot of support from die-hard conservatives who live there," Butler says. Connally's Malone thinks that Bush will wilt in the South: unlike Carter four years ago (the campaign to which Bush's is most often compared), the transplanted Easterner is not moving into his area of strength after New England.

Kennedy, meanwhile, is deemphasing the South in his campaign, perhaps in acknowledgment of Carter's strength in his home region. In 1976 Carter swept almost all the southern primaries, repeatedly defeating expected winner George Wallace. This time around, "I'm sure Carter will be on top" in the March 11 Florida, Alabama and Georgia primaries, Franks says.

One week after the triplet of southern primaries is the Illinois contest, a vital test for both Republicans and Democrats. On the surface, things look good for Kennedy: large Northern industrial states are traditionally good for liberal Democrats, and he received the normally election-clinching endorsement of Chicago mayor Jane M. Byrne and the Cook County machine.

But Stearns admits that the Kennedy campaign is in bad shape in Illinois because of rural downstate support for Carter and because of political turmoil in Chicago. Since she announced her support for Kennedy, Byrne has been preoccupied with strikes by transit workers, firemen, and school teachers. Moreover, the machine itself is plagued by vicious infighting. "It is certainly not the best campaign in the country," Stearns says, adding that most of the problems are local.

He also says that the Illinois campaign suffered the greatest financial setback when funds began to dry up after Kennedy's 2-1 defeat in Iowa last month. But despite Kennedy's woes in the Land of Lincoln, Carter's strategist does not predict overwhelming victory. "We're ahead at this point," Franks acknowledges, "but the election is almost a month away."

Because of the trouble in Illinois, Kennedy is playing up the March 25 primaries in New York and Connecticut as the ones to watch. Franks says Kennedy's emphasis on New York as the first major test in a large Northern industrial state is a slight to the people of Illinois. But it may be smart politics. Carter lost New York the last time around, placing an embarrassing fourth behind Sen. Henry M. Jackson (D-Wash.), Rep. Morris K. Udall (D-Ariz.), and sundry uncommitteds. Once through Illinois and New York, campaign officials are sketchy on strategy.

The Republicans, too, are vague about their plans after Illinois. Crane "has not developed a strategy past" his home state, Cronin says, "but he has some of his best fund-raising capacity in Texas." Cronin says he expects Connally to drop out of the race before the May 3 Lone Star primary.

But Malone insists that Connally can do well in his home state. If he does, "it will be a shot to Bush." Malone fully expects Connally to be in the race "for the duration," on the belief that "when they go into the convention, nobody is going to have the delegates wrapped up for the first ballot." He adds: "Connally is a big second choice."

Reagan, too, will continue to run, even if everything falls apart in the early New England and Southern contest. Thompson says Reagan wants to take advantage of strong support in the West, especially in California.

The ex-governor is looking to sweep the 168 delegates up for grabs in his home state. But the other Republican candidates are already on the lookout; they have challenged the legality of the state's winner-take-all system, whereby the candidate who gets all the most votes gets all the convention votes. If the challenges succeed and delegates are distributed proportionally, Reagan will be standing on very thin ice.

A good showing on June 3 would be a big step--perhaps the final step--toward garnering the 997 delegate votes neccessary to clinch the Republican nomination or the 1666 delegates needed to become the Democratic nominee. But June 3 is a long way off, especially in the world of presidential politics. Even more remote are the speeches, slogans, revelling and backroom politicking of the July Republican national convention in Detroit and the August Democratic encore in Madison Square Garden. With dozens of primaries and caucuses between now and then, November seems awfully far away.