Clifton, however, believes the national economy may go through two or three cycles of good and bad times during a five-year drive. "I don't think the drive leadership will set their sights on national economic conditions--only a major national or international crisis could delay it," he says.

The fund drive also faces a host of public-relations and personality problems. An appeal for endowment money is bound to be less enticing to prospective donors than a dramatic expansion campaign. On top of that, Harvard suffers from what Kaufmann calls "the curse of endowment"--the tendency for people to look at the one-and-a-half billion dollar endowment and ask why the University needs more money.

For the drive to work its leaders must put together a "package of attractive donation possibilities." Donors want to pay for specific items, Gibbens says.

"You can sell a gimmick better than you can sell something very basic like we're trying to do," Glimp says.

Fundraisers doubt the rise of Harvard student activism on issues like South Africa will affect their drive. "We can't plan for things that we can't influence," Gibbens says. Glimp points out that alumni contributions remained steady through the period of student protests in the late '60s and early '70s.

Despite reservations about the national economy and the appeal of a drive that doesn't involve much "bricks and mortar," administrators seem sure the drive will go ahead as planned and are optimistic about its chances for success. Since last fall, College Fund volunteers have been screening potential contributors across the country to gauge how much money might be available and to find out whether alumni might resist a capital drive right now. By next fall about 3000 alumni will have gotten the once-over; and so far, the prospects look good.

In the meantime, the machinery awaits only the Corporation's go-ahead--and that decision may come as early as the final Corporation meeting this year, in late May or early June. Glimp says, "There won't be any surprises" when the Corporation announces its decision; and alumni can begin hitting up their classmates for money.