"Is Dukakis in trouble?" I asked, mindful that he had been in severe trouble before the Blizzard of '78.

"No, he's got it sewed up. Ed King won't get anywhere."

"And Ed Brooke?"

"He's dead. This divorce thing will finish him."

"But who'll take it from him?"

"Kathleen Sullivan-Alioto, maybe. Avi Nelson, maybe. Or Paul Guzzi, if he gets into it."

"And Paul Tsongas?"

"Nope, not a chance. He's good, but nobody knows him outside the Fifth District. It's too bad he'll lose. He's a good Congressman."

It was all true. Brooke looked vulnerable, Guzzi and Alioto seemed to have the best shot. And Tsongas was not only unknown, he was unpronouncable. But he was also smart, creative, had a good staff, and about $400,000 worth of power behind him. He went on television early and used a self-effacing ad that began with a series of ordinary citizens mispronouncing his name--a touch of humor that spelled the beginning of the end for Guzzi.

Nobody, today, can accurately call the Brooke-Tsongas race. Nor can anyone yet predict the Hatch-King race. Hatch-King will probably boil down to a clear liberal-versus-conservative battle, unless Tip O'Neill calls in his favors throughout the Democratic party to try to save Ed King, and therefore his son Tom. But even if Hatch-King is clearly a liberal-conservative choice, the races so far have been so confused by other factors that nobody has a clear idea of where the balance of power lies.