Conventionally, a favorable report from Judiciary guarantees a bill smooth sailing once it reaches the floor. Marijuana is no conventional issue however. "There are certain bills that are so volatile that a favorable report would not insure passage," Hatch says, noting that "this bill is not a bottle bill."

Sisitsky is uncertain about the future of decriminalization in the 1977 session of the Massachusetts legislature, but feels that the unprecedented Judiciary Committee action may be the deciding factor. "The fact that the House chairman (Flaherty), regarded as a conservative, and the Senate chairman, considered a liberal, come out the same way will mean something," he says. Oteri believes the bill has a 50-50 chance, but it is co-sponsor Murphy who sounds the most pessimistic note of all. Asked for a candid assessment of the bill's chances, Murphy says, "I would love to say yes, it will pass this year, but my feeling is this is not the year for political reasons, rather than the issue's substance."

For starters, the anticipated role to be played by House Speaker Thomas W. McGee will not help matters much. One legislator who asked not to be identified said, "My hunch is that McGee is irrevocably against decriminalization," adding, "I just don't think that you've got the groundswell on the floor this year."

Special circumstances also will affect the course of the bill. "Two young reps who might have even tried pot when they were younger have conveyed their concern to me," Murphy says. "They're 25 or 26, and although they personally support the bill, they're afraid they might get killed in their district for supporting it." With the imminent redistricting that will pare the 240-member lower chamber down to 160 representatives, House legislators have never been so conscious of treading lightly on the sore spots of some constituents. The House is clearly the iceberg which might sink the measure.

While most legislators refuse to speculate on Gov. Michael Dukakis's position on any marijuana bill that emerges from the legislature, the governor's press secretary, Alan Raymond, spells out the executive's line: "The governor has always said that he would be willing to sign a marijuana decriminalization bill if one were to come to his desk. However, he does not plan any special lobbying effort on behalf of the decriminalization bill in the legislature." The statement is still another confirmation of the consensus that the House will be the ultimate crucible for HB-4914.

And where do the proponents of decriminalization go if the bill does run aground on the floor this year? Why, to the people of course. "I have hidden in the wings a non-binding referendum," Murphy says, "and I'd like to get it onto a statewide ballot next year because, after all, a non-binding referendum is the best poll there is."