For this reason, it might have been wise not to make a proposal of this sort in the campaign. But, Weil said, "it wasn't my belief that you had to have the figures to make the proposal." He, and Mankiewicz, too, thought the proposal could still be made in terms of general principles. And perhaps, if McGovern had not strayed beyond principles, everything would have turned out all right. But, pressed by reporters in California to explain his position on welfare reform, McGovern moved beyond the general principle he had earlier espoused and allowed himself, more and more, to become identified with the $1000 per person idea.
The welfare reform proposal had been released, along with McGovern's tax reform plan, in late January 1972. As a gesture to Greene, it had been futile: no contribution was forth-coming. As a response to the challenge from the party's left, it was unnecessary: soon after the proposal was released, Harris dropped out, never having offered a remedy for income inequality.
McGovern's proposal lay dormant throughout the early primaries. By late Spring 1972, it was ready to emerge from hibernation. McGovern was the Democratic front-runner and stood alone on the left of the party. His stand on the issues had become a potential liability, and Hubert Humphrey, his one remaining major opponent, sought to exploit it. In Nebraska, McGovern was labelled the candidate for amnesty, abortion and acid. In California, Humphrey attacked McGovern on defense cutbacks and welfare reform.
Why did McGovern let himself get tied to a specific welfare plan in California? "His calculation," Weil said, "was that it was easier to explain the proposal using $1000 as an example than it was to explain the principle. He thought it was more effective to explain it in those terms."
Weil says he warned McGovern of the risks he was incurring. "He said, 'yes, I think you're absolutely right.' Then he went on doing it the way he'd always done it. So effectively you're told that your idea has not been accepted," Weil said.
When the plan came under attack in the primary's first television debate, McGovern showed he was not prepared to defend it. In the May 28 debate, which was broadcast on CBS's "Face the Nation," Humphrey gave the impression that he knew far more about the proposal than McGovern did himself.
He managed to portray the plan as outlandishly expensive. He alleged it would put millions of people "on welfare." And he provided a striking piece of evidence that "the middle income taxpayer will pay the lion's share of the bill."
The debate illustrated clearly the hazards of introducing a proposal of this complexity without having worked out the details or knowing the cost. McGovern was actually forced to admit, during the debate, that he could not put a price tag on his plan.
Surprisingly, he did not seem to think this was a problem. When one of the panelists inquired, incredulously, "But you're asking us to accept a program that you can't tell us how much it's going to cost," McGovern answered, "That's exactly right."
McGovern seemed to feel that the taxpayers who would pay for the plan would accept it on faith because they "would be financing a minimum income program that would work, rather than this mess that we have no that won't work."
As for the dangers of making a proposal without working out the details, Humphrey dramatically demonstrated these with his secretary case--his argument that "a (single) secretary working in San Francisco, making $8000" would experience a large tax increase under the $1000 per person plan as McGovern presented it.
Humphrey was right. Some of the funds to provide benefits for large families would have come from small families and single people under the plan. "We worked all summer to try to deal with the secretary problem," Joseph Pechman, a Brookings Institution economist who joined the campaign after the California primary, said. "We did (do something about it) with gimmicks, but that upset the plan."
The debate may have illustrated more than the importance of being prepared. Mankiewicz thinks it illustrated the impossibility of defending the proposal in a campaign.
During the debate, Humphrey misrepresented the plan in ways that made it look ridiculous (without rebuttal by McGovern). He asserted that the plan would give $1000 to everybody, rich or poor, "whether it's Howard Hughes or whether it's Joe Smith." He remarked that the plan would involve "a $210 billion Treasury transaction" since it would give $1000 to all 210 million Americans.
And he played on the theme that the proposal would put everybody on welfare, although actually, most of those who would receive benefits under the plan would be working.
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