From the Japanese point of view, particularly, the alliance is important. Not only do the Japanese rely on an American defense umbrella, but, more importantly perhaps, they are dependent on Esso, Caltax, and other American firms, along with the Dutch-British Shell combine for most of their crude oil.
The Japanese-American alliance is not necessarily long-term, however, as is indicated by warming relations between the Soviet Union and Japan, as evidenced in the joint Siberian development agreement, and also by recent Japanese attempts to normalize relations with China.
There is no doubt the Japanese are increasingly unhappy with their dependency on American oil interests. Following the price hike from 23.2 to 28.5 cents per barrel on February 18 by the five major Western oil suppliers to Japan, Japan's Minister of International Trade and Industry urged the Japanese petroleum refining industry to put up all-out resistance to the price rise. At the same time, the Finance Minister stated Japan had to make epochal changes in her policy of securing natural resources for her industries.
The Soviet Union's ambitions on Southeast Asian oil are unclear, though it is obvious the Soviets are trying to develop more rapport with Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.
In Singapore, the most recent indication of this came in early February when the outgoing Ambassador to Singapore, Ilya Ivanovitch Safranov, told the local press that there is "much similarity in the parliamentary systems" of Singapore and the Soviet Union.
On February 23, with regard to American development of offshore oil in the region, Pravda carried an article blaming American aggression in Indochina on aspirations of the U. S. oil interests to get offshore oil along the coast of Indochina.
China's position on the status quo in Southeast Asia is well-know. However, her position on offshore oil in Southeast Asia is a question-mark.
The Chinese are now reported to be self-sufficient in oil from onshore wells in northern China. However, production is reported to be less than 100,000 barrels per day, an amount which will have to be expanded as China further industrializes. On February 24 China launched its largest oil tanker to date, a 22,000-ton vessel giving indications they plan to expand their role in the oil trade.
The Chinese have involved themselves in the dispute over control of the Senkaku Islands north of Taiwan. Whether or not they are interested in developing their offshore oil reserves at this point is not clear, however.
In any case, the chance of an international confrontation involving oil between the Chinese and another nation is real. For example, there are many islands in the center of the South China Sea over which sovereignty is in dispute between China and other governments. Some of these islands are thought by geologists to be in the vicinity of rich oil reserves.
One such island is Spratley Island, a 500 by 300-yard uninhabited bit of land 280 miles southeast of Cam Ranh Bay and 775 miles northeast of Singapore. It is claimed at least by China. South Vietnam and the Philippines. The Philippines has already let oil concessions near it. What would happen if either China or Vietnam let concessions involving it is anybody's guess.
The State Department avowedly takes no position when there is a sovereignty dispute over the islands. However, an official in the Asian-Communist Affairs Office stated that if any islands "were administered through the Philippines, we probably would recognize the Philippines as having sovereignty."
This is only one kind of boundary problems that could arise over oil. As drilling is about to begin in Cambodia, for example, continental shelf boundary disputes exist with Thailand and Vietnam. Further south, the continental shelf boundary between Thailand and Malaysia is not officially settled. And between the Philippines and Malaysia there is a long-standing feud over who should own Sarawak and the Palapan island. Only Malaysia and Indonesia have settled all their continental shelf boundary problems.
In Vietnam there is the very real problem of how oil development will influence the war and just how many lives will be lost keeping the country at least safe for off-shore concessions. The Provisional Revolutionary Government of the NLF announced February 23 it would not recognize oil agreements made by Saigon.
The search for offshore oil is indeed one of the biggest things happening to Southeast Asia today. But it augurs problems for the future as great or greater than any in the history of the region.
(Copyright Dispatch News Service International)
The CRIMSON is pleased to announce the election of Robert N. Gogel '74 of Weld Hall and Livingston, New Jersev, and Alexander C. Smythe '73 of Leverett House and Houston, Texas, to the Business Board.