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Who Won What

Elections

Several other elections took place on Tuesday which fit into more conventional political categories.

The elections in Kentucky and New Jersey were of particular interest to political observers because off-year swings to the G.O.P. in these states in 1967 foreshadowed the Nixon win in 1968.

In 1967, Kentucky elected Louis B. Nunn, its first Republican Governor in many years. Nixon carried the Bluegrass state in 1968. On Tuesday, Kentucky elected Democrat Wendell Ford who ran on a dump-Nixon platform, directing his fire especially against the President's economic programs.

The G.O.P. won overwhelming control of the New Jersey legislature in 1967. The Garden State went to Nixon in 1968. This year, the Democrats made substantial gains in the Legislature, though the Republicans stayed in control.

While these elections don't mean all the Democrats say they do, they should give the President some food for thought.

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The Greek word for pebble is "psephos." In Athens, citizens used to vote by casting pebbles. Consequently, the word "psephology" has come to mean "the study of voter behavior."

In their book The Real Majority, Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg laid claim to this word as a description for the science in which they were engaged. By analyzing various election results and polls, they came to the conclusion that candidates who fell outside of the "political center" would lose elections, and that Democrats (or anyone else) who soft-peddled the law and order issue would certainly lose. They saw a new issue emerging in America, "the social issue," which encompassed the sorts of fears which elected Frank Rizzo in Philadelphia. If the Democrats neutralize the social issue by talking tough, then they say, they will be able to win by returning to the Scammon version of the "economic issues," which turns out to be bread-and-butter liberalism. The authors are almost certainly busy at work now on an article showing how the 1971 elections further confirmed their thesis.

There is, to be sure, a "social issue" in America, and it did show up yesterday. But it came down to far more than fears about crime and integration. It also includes resentments against power companies and banks and established interests--whether liberal or conservative. While Kentucky, and to a lesser extent, New Jersey, indicated that conventional appeals to old fashioned Democratic issues can be effective, and while Frank Rizzo demonstrated that law and order still has punch, Henry Howell in Virginia and the corporation tax referendum in Florida indicate that "the social issue" may extend far beyond law-and-order. In which case we will all have to re-examine our pebbles.

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