Donald W. Klein, research fellow in East Asian Studies, said there was a marked lack of clarity as to what the Administration wanted in the way of negotiations. Klein associated himself with Craig's position on this issue. "We all know what the Administration is against," Klein said, "but everyone, including the Administration, seems fuzzy about what they are for."
Diplomatically, Klein saw the decision to drop the bomb as a wrong one. He cited the lesson of the Korean War where we leveled the North without moving our opponents any nearer to the peace table. As for the timing of the escalation, Klein speculated that it was a domestic move on Johnson's behalf, and that the President feels this is the "tidy war" the Gallup Polls favor.
While Craig said the bombing was probably the result of a sense of frustration, Quester suggested the decision was made on a basis of China's inability to retaliate. "The primary factor in our decision to time it at this point was that China would have to put its own house in order before it could effectively deal with a challenger from without." Quester didn't think it had anything to do with U.S. domestic politics, because if Johnson had really wanted to capitalize on the move, he would have waited until the elections were closer.
Price of Aggression
When asked whether he thought we were really raising the costs of aggression, Quester said that the bombing both made the Viet Cong less capable of waging the war, and at the same time made aggression more expensive. Although the damage is only temporary, he continued, "we have played a delicate game well. A few years ago no one would have thought that careful escalation was a possible alternative." The reports that Hanoi has said that it will need greater help from its allies within a year seem perfectly plausible, Quester said.
The slogan stating that the U.S. was raising the price of aggression assumes that the war originates in the North, Craig said. There is obviously infiltration from the North, but the war, until very recently, has been primarily a civil war in South Vietnam. Craig implied that the slogan funds to distort the picture and make it appear a Korean like situation.
As to whether the recent bombing would provoke North Vietnam's allies to give greater material aid and possibly volunteer manpower, Quester said that as of right now neither Russia nor Red China were giving much aid, and that he doubted whether there would be any significant increases as a result of the bombing.
Klein doubted that Red China would send troops unless South Vietnamese and American troops landed in the North. As for U.S. allies, Klein said that Prime Minister Wilson had probably denounced our bombing Hanoi because of internal political pressure from left-wing Labourites. Quester agreed with this interpretation, but went one step further, saying that he thought a number of countries which decry our actions publicly, are quietly quite pleased with U.S. policy in the Far East.