Last year I was the only sports writer in the western hemisphere to pick the Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies, and on Sept. 1, I was waiting for my world series tickets to arrive in the mail. I honestly wasn't too surprised when the Yankees rallied, but the collapse of the Phillies left me a bit shaken.

I went into hibernation for three months, fasted and reconstructed my philosophical system. I fed "Who's Who in Baseball" through the 7094. I compared the role of the Phillies with that of the American government in Vietnam.

Observation and reflection finally led me to the Infallible Rule of National League Forecasting, brought forward here for the first time: Never pick the team that's obviously going to win.

This year, there's a real standout, picked by every knowledgeable sportswriter, backed by every statistic; it's the Cincinnatti Reds.

The Reds have pitching: Jim O'Toole was 17-7 last year, Jim Maloney was 15-10 after a 20-game season in 1963. Rookie Sam Ellis, called up at midseason, was 10-2 as a reliefer, while Bill McCool was 6-5 and 2.42, and Bill Henry 2-2 and 0.87. If two starters can be found from among Joey Jay, Joe Nuxhall, John Tsitouris and Roger Craig, the Reds will be absolutely solid.

Furthermore, their hitting should be outstanding. Frank Robinson is a dependable .200 hitter and Vada Pinson, who slumped to an unheard-of .266, should be keeping him company this year. Add an acceptable infield and Johnny Edwards, probably the league's best catcher, and the Reds look like a shoo-in. That's enough to eliminate them right there.

If the Reds can't do it, an obvious choice is the San Francisco Giants, who finished three games back last year despite collapses by Jack Sanford, and Willie McCovey. The Giants have Willie Mays, who led the league in home runs with 47; Orlando Cepeda, who hit .200 again; Juan Marichal, the league's best righthander; and three second-year men who had excellent rookie seasons--Jim Ray Hart, Jesus Alou, and second buseman Hal Lanier.

But the Giants are weak on the mound--especially in relief. The second-line starters behind Marichal will be people named Gaylord Perry, Bob Bolin, and Ron Herbel. Sanford is the question mark. If he recovers his 1962 form (24-7), the Giants are the team to beat, but Sanford is now 35 years old and a recovery from his 2-5 season seems unlikely.

The Phillies have the same trouble. If Bunning could duplicate his 1964 season, (19-8), the Phils would be in good shape for pitchers. Lefthanders Chris Short (17-9) is a topflight pitcher, Ray Culp and Art Mahaffey had undistinguished rocords last year, but both have had good seasons before, and both are young. Bo Belinsky, and elderly Ray Herbert, two acquisitions from the American League, are also in the picture, and two adequate starting pitchers will undoubtedly emerge from among the four. Jack Baldschun is a capable reliever.

Weak Infield

But the Phillies may find that their infield, with Dick Stuart now holding down first base, and Richie Allen (who batted .318 but made 41 errors) at third, won't be of championship callber, Second baseman Tony Taylor and shortstops Reuben Amaro and Bobby Wine are not causes for jubilation in Philadelphia. The outfield of John Callison (.274), Tony Gonsales (.278) and Wes Covington (.280) is solid.

Bunning is the Phils' big question mark. He was an up-and-down pitcher with Detroit and had the advantage last year of being unfamiliar to National League hitters. In his second year in the league, he may be less effective, and the Phils may discover that Short is their only dependable starter.

The team that has changed least during the off-season, next to the Giants, is the MUwaukee Braves. The Braves will start the same eight men who finished fifth, five games behind the Cardinals, last season.

But the Braves are weaker in one respect, with Hank Aaron recuperating from a shoulder operation and potentially useless for at least part of the season.

Last year the Braves had power; five of their players slugged 20 or more home runs. The outfield of Aaron (.328), Rico Carty (.320), and Lee Maye (.304) is unquestionably the best in a league full of good ones, Dennis Menke came through as a rookie infielder, and Joe Torre developed into a fine catcher while hitting .821.

The Braves are also the same on the mound, unfortunately, with only Tony Cloninger (19-14) and Denny Lemaster (14-11) as reliable starters. Dan Osinski, acquired from the Angels, is expected to blossom into the bullpen "stopper" the Braves desperately need, but Osinski never did so in the American League.