And yet Percy lost, although Goldwater ran much better (41%) in Illinois than in Michigan or Rhode Island: Percy's 48% of the vote was only 7% higher than Goldwater's, compared to differences of 22% for Romney and 42% for Chafee.
Why didn't more people switch from the Democratic column to vote for Percy? Kerner had not been an outstandingly successful Governor; he had had his troubles with the malapportioned Republican legislature; he had ties to that old ogre, Mayor Daley of Chicago. Nevertheless, far fewer voters in Illinois than in Michigan or Rhode Island split their tickets. The voters wanted to keep Kerner: he had, after all, done an adequate job; times were good, and with all the upheavals lately, why change?
Kerner was not the only beneficiary of such feelings. Throughout the country, voters preferred the incumbent Governor or Senator, regardless of party. Incumbent Republican Governors and Senators ran an average of 17% ahead of Goldwater. At the same time, non-incumbent Republicans running against incumbent Democratic Governors and Senators ran only 1 1/2% ahead of their Presidential candidate, 1964 was not the Year of the Split Ticket; it was the Year of the Incumbent.
But what about 1966? Inevitably, the post-Kennedy desire for continuity and stability will fade to some extent. Education costs will continue to rise, and new taxes will be necessary in many states--notably Massachusetts and New York. Already, Governors are grappling with hostile legislatures in what has become an annual rite of spring.
Three facts, however, will tend to lighten Governors' burdens. The Kennedy-Johnson prosperity, if it continues, will obviate the need for some tax rises and make others more palatable, as it has during the past two years. And the President's education bill will provide considerable sums to needy states and localities.
Reapportionment of state legislatures--already accomplished in many states, and scheduled for 1965 in others--will probably take much of the pressure off the Governors. The areas gaining the most representation, suburbs and middle-class neighborhoods in large cities, are just those where constituent pressures for better education are strongest. The Democrats, who stand to gain most from redistricting, have shown more initiative than the Republicans in supporting education and levying the necessary taxes. Therefore the old tax fights between Governor and legislature should become less common.
The first real test of voters' attitudes will come in the gubernatorial election this fall in New Jersey. Governor Richard J. Hughes, a Democrat, in many ways resembles Governor Kerner. Hughes has an unremarkable personality, is a good family man, and has done a satisfactory but not sparkling job as Governor of New Jersey. He has had (and is having) his spats with a malapportioned Republican legislature, and will probably have to push for a tax increase this year.
Neither of the two State Senators who are sparring for the Republican nomination is material for a Time cover; but if 1965 were 1962, the Republican candidate would be an odds-on favorite to win. The result should tell how much voters' attitudes will have changed between November 1964 and November 1965.
If the 1964 mood is still lingering, Hughes will probably win in a landslide, with something like 60% of the vote. If Hughes wins by a relatively small margin (as he did in 1961), then we may assume that the feelings engendered by President Kennedy's death have largely faded. And if Hughes loses, then many of the state Governors up for re-election in 1966 would be wise to line up other jobs for 1967.