The causes of this decline are several. Once again the factor of Kennedy's religion will sway many Catholic voters in these counties. Hinden estimated the Catholic voting population in the two counties at 35 per cent. Another is the movement of factories and businesses to the suburbs, causing an influx of blue and white collar voters, who tend to vote Democratic.

A population boom in these suburban counties, which include Westchester and Rockland also, has sent registration figures soaring, making this area the wheel on which the state turns politically.

With Republican strength corroded in the suburbs, Desmond calculates that "Nixon will have to run 7 to 3 upstate if he is to have any chance at all."

From Buffalo, the second largest city of the state and the hub of heavily industrialized Erie County, Millard Brown, chief editorial writer of the Evening News, told the CRIMSON yesterday: "There's a pretty substantial Kennedy movement here, and he's pretty popular among suburban Republicans."

A combination of 65 per cent Catholic population in Buffalo and significant unemployment in the steel mills indicate a heavy margin for Kennedy, Brown said.

All over the upstate region the same pattern of Democratic strength in heavily Catholic urban regions emerges. This vote is expected partially to neutralize Republican margins in the rura counties. This pattern, it is predicted, will hold Nixon's upstate plurality to a figure considerably less than he will need to offset the expected landslide downstate