As covered earlier this week, the Harvard men’s basketball team (22-7, 11-3 Ivy) is being seen a substantial underdog to its first-round NCAA opponent—the North Carolina Tar Heels (24-11, 11-7 ACC). Below, men’s basketball beat writer David Freed looks at the five things Harvard needs to do to pull off the upset.
1. Control the Pace: In today’s media sessions, the top main topics were the pace of the game and the ability of the Tar Heels to control the boards. UNC likes to get out and run, where its athleticism can overcome opponents and generate early looks in transition. The Tar Heels just 1-5 in games with fewer than 65 possessions, whereas Harvard averages just 63.8 possessions a game. If the Crimson can keep the game slow, minimizing turnovers, they can keep a potent UNC offense in check.
2. Stop Marcus Paige: The heart and soul of the Tar Heels is junior point guard Marcus Paige, the team’s best perimeter scorer. Paige will be checked by a litany of Harvard defenders, likely starting with 6’0” starting point guard Siyani Chambers. Chambers guarded Yale combo guard Javier Duren for many of the final two contests with Yale and has improved vastly as a defender in year three. If he does not excel here, however, Harvard’s chances will fall from slim to none.
3. Hold its Own on the Glass: Against a team that ranked second in Division I in rebounding, it is crucial Harvard be able to keep defensive possessions to one shot. UNC boasts length, depth, and size across its front line, while Harvard often eschews defensive rebounding to send people (read: junior Agunwa Okolie) out in transition. Junior wing Wesley Saunders and co-captain Steve Moundou-Missi are the team’s two best rebounding rotation players and the two keys to the game. On the other side, Harvard will likely eschew rebounding to send extra players back in transition, as stopping the Tar Heel break is a priority for the squad.
4. Bench and Balance: Harvard coach Tommy Amaker is often quoted with these two words, his personal keys to the Harvard offense. Against a deep UNC squad, Harvard will need both its bench to provide solid minutes and support its big three—Chambers, Moundou-Missi, and Saunders—who will not overcome the Tar Heels on their own.
5. Regress To The Mean: In its biggest games of the year, Harvard’s shot has failed it when it needed it most. Two brutal three-point shooting performances against Yale were preceded by brick fests against Virginia and Boston College. Saunders went a combined four-of-26 in the two games, while the Crimson as a team shot just 24.5 percent. While some credit is due to the defenses of the opposing squads, Harvard missed a number of wide-open shots in each contest—against the Cavaliers in particular, the Crimson generated a series of early good looks. If the percentages revert back to the mean, Harvard will defy many of the doubters about its offense.
—Staff writer David Freed can be reached at david.freed@thecrimson.com.
