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Harvard economists and political science experts warned of eroding public trust in politicians and U.S. fiscal institutions amid the ongoing federal government shutdown, which began on Oct. 1.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans have been locked in a standoff over health care benefits, tussling over whether the Affordable Care Act’s subsidies should last into 2026. The parties have been unable to reach a compromise on spending legislation to keep the govenrment running, and experts said the loss of services that result from the shutdown will have an impact on American’s daily lives.
“Shutdowns reduce people’s confidence in government,” former Harvard Kennedy School Dean Douglas W. Elmendorf said. “People rely on the government for a whole range of services, and when those services stop, that’s very frustrating for many people on a day to day basis.”
Jennifer L. Hochschild, professor of Government and African American Studies at HKS, said that most people “don’t pay enough attention” to politics, so those who are unimpacted will see the shutdown as “just more of that Washington — those politicians squabbling and posturing and taking positions that don’t actually make any sense.”.
“Those people who are affected almost certainly don’t like it,” she said.
Economics professor Jason Furman ’92, who served as chairman of former President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers during the 2013 federal government shutdown, wrote in an email that the shutdown is emblematic of a larger trend of weakening domestic and international confidence in US government and financial systems.
“The credibility of U.S. fiscal institutions has been damaged by what seems like non-stop issues that have intensified over the last fourteen years,” he wrote. “Battles over the debt limit are even more serious than shutdowns because we are asking foreigners to lend to the United States but then create some doubt about whether or not they’ll be repaid.”
Several professors also highlighted President Donald Trump’s role in the government shutdown.
Hochschild called Trump “uniquely unpredictable,” which she said means it is unclear what role he will play in ending the shutdown.
Theda R. Skocpol, a professor of Government and Sociology, wrote in an email that “legislative bargaining has completely broken down because the Trump White House has made it clear that it will not follow Congressional spending laws if it does not want to.”
“This is a direct byproduct of Trump’s 99 percent domination of the Republican Party and beyond Congress,” she added.
Some experts highlighted political hostility and polarization as causes of the shutdown.
Elmendorf, who is a former director of the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, said there has been a recent increase in shutdowns because “elected leaders aren’t willing to compromise.”
“There have always been intense disagreements about economic policy and government budget policy, but in earlier days, those disagreements were more often resolved before the damage of a shutdown was felt,” he said. “The increasing polarization that we see has increased the likelihood of shutdowns and the length of shutdowns.”
Hochschild said the current shutdown was caused by an “intensifying of antagonism” in U.S. politics and an “unwillingness” to compromise by politicians on both sides.
“It’s certainly more than sort of conventional policy disagreements,” she said. “I’m not sure that it represents a deeper level of polarization than we’ve had in the past, but more a new tactic that never occurred to anybody to use before.”
And HKS Government professor Linda J. Bilmes said institutional dysfunction is at the root of the shutdown, pointing to the Congressional budget system. “The basic core budget process needs to be overhauled,” she said.
Furman, who specializes in economic policy, wrote that the government shutdown is unlikely to have large macroeconomic consequences if it ends within a month.
“Past shutdowns, one of which lasted 35 days, have had only a very small impact on measured GDP or employment and even that small impact quickly reversed itself once the government reopened,” he wrote.
“That said, shutdowns hurt the ability of the government to deliver on what taxpayers expect. They make everything function in a more costly and inefficient manner,” he added.
Elmendorf offered a piece of advice for sitting members of Congress.
“Take seriously the costs of the shutdown,” he said. “Most leaders in the presidency or in the Congress look worse after shutdowns than they do before.”
