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Harvard Government professor Stephen D. Ansolabehere and ABC News Editorial Director of Data Analytics Elliott Morris discussed the accuracy of polling data on the 2024 election at an event hosted by the Institute of Politics and the Center for American Political Studies.
At the event, moderated by CAPS Director and Government professor Ryan D. Enos, the speakers discussed how polling results could explain voting patterns and the outcome of the 2024 elections. The conversation also included an in-depth discussion of Democratic polling bias and voting patterns among different demographic groups.
Discussing the limitations of the currently available data, Enos said that “to really learn what happened, that’s going to take months if not years.”
The speakers also discussed the attempts made to provide reasoning for the voting patterns among different demographic groups. “I think that the really surprising things this election are a bunch of non-findings,” Ansolabehere said.
“I cannot tell you how many op-eds I’ve read about this being a class backlash among young white men,” he said. “There wasn’t any change in 2024. They voted the same way.”
“So, justifiably, given the stakes, there’s been a ton of commentary on the election in the last couple of weeks. And unfortunately, I think from a lot of our perspectives, almost all that’s basically based on vibes,” Enos added.
He said these perspectives “can kind of lead you to whatever story you prefer."
The speakers also discussed the Democratic bias of polling data when compared to the election results.
“I don’t think it’s people that are shy to say that they’re supportive of Trump,” Morris said. “Our hypothesis has been that if you’re more Trumpy, abstracting all your other group identities, then you’re less likely to answer the phone.”
“Exit polls have always been biased in the Democratic direction since the 1970s, and we've known that,” Ansolabehere added. “We analyzed it extensively, we cannot figure out what it is. Doesn't matter if it’s Trump or not, it goes all with that.”
Ansolabehere also addressed the urban and rural split in Hispanic voting patterns, namely in Texas.
“The Democrats are clearly losing ground with these kinds of non-urban working class Hispanics,” Ansolabehere said. He said the same applied to “a lot of the shift in New Jersey and New York away from the Democrats.”
In an interview with The Crimson after the event, Ansolabehere discussed how technological advancement will lead to the use of newer and more accurate methods to facilitate polling.
“I think there are going to be some very interesting changes coming around — just the use of mobile devices that’ll make it much easier to contact people. The challenge then will be to understand who we’re thinking about,” Ansolabehere said.
