No matter whom you ask, Republican control of both the Senate and House of Representatives after the Nov. 4 midterm elections seem increasingly probable, even inevitable. This reality all but assures that President Obama’s final two years in office will be even less productive than his embattled last four.

Incumbent presidents usually fare extraordinarily poorly in their second-term midterm elections, so the Democrats’ woes are far from surprising. The more interesting question is whether the president’s party will receive a “shellacking” on par with 2010. Fielding a cadre of lackluster candidates, they seem increasingly destined for that fate.

Democrats should look no further than themselves when diagnosing what went wrong in 2014. In large numbers, Democratic Senatorial candidates capitulated to Republican messaging, attempting to distance themselves from the president—on matters of popularity, not principles.

Colorado Senator Mark Udall, who has lost a steady lead in his reelection bid, skipped a visit from the president this summer and has been careful not to be seen with him, despite voting for the president’s agenda 99 percent of the time. In North Carolina and Arkansas, embattled Democratic incumbents have either skipped the president’s visits or sought to publicly challenge him before their constituents.

In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell’s Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes has refused to even say whether she voted for the president by citing the “sanctity of the ballot box,” and runs campaign ads solemnly declaring, “I’m not Barack Obama.” Unlike Grimes, Democratic Alaska Senator Mark Begich is unwilling to even say the president’s name, according to the Los Angeles Times.

By engaging in this brand of defensive posturing, Democrats have ceded the narrative to Republicans while accepting an election devoid of ideas.

If there is one redeeming quality to the elections, it is that the Republican candidates are embracing a more moderate social message. At least eight congressional Republicans have endorsed gay marriage, and two openly gay GOP candidates are currently running, including Richard Tisei in Massachusetts’ sixth district. The American people, and now the federal courts, have caught up with the times—the Republican Party is starting to, as well.

Republicans are also slowly acknowledging the existence, and success, of the Affordable Care Act—in states where the number of uninsured has dropped precipitously, Republicans are finding it harder to campaign on repealing the ACA.

It would be one thing if Democrats truly disagreed with the president’s core policies like minimum wage increases, student loan reform, and continued implementation of the Affordable Care Act—but they don’t. Missing a photo op while privately endorsing all the president’s proposals is just the kind the shallow and superficial politicking that has turned Americans against Democratic leadership. The playbook will have to change in 2016.