Sarah Sewall, the director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, said she did not believe anti-American sentiment in Iraq would abate.

CORRECTION APPENDED

Nearly four and a half years after the American invasion of Iraq, five experts rejected claims made by General David H. Petraeus that the United States is making progress in Iraq and said that troops cannot be withdrawn given the country’s political troubles.

The John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum event brought together experts from academic, military, and political backgrounds to discuss the report, which Petraeus presented to Congress last Monday.

Joseph S. Nye Jr., an international relations scholar at the Kennedy School and the moderator of the event, asked the panelists—Kennedy School professors Graham T. Allison, Linda J. Bilmes, Tad J. Oelstrom, Sarah Sewall, and former Rep. Clay Shaw (D-Fla.)—how many troops they each expected the next president to inherit in Iraq. None estimated that there would be fewer than 80,000 on active duty in 2009.

Nye noted that polls showed 60 percent of Iraqis welcomed Americans after the U.S. invasion, but that 60 percent now think it fine to kill U.S. troops.

Sewall, an expert on counterinsurgency and director of the Carr Center for Human Rights Policy, said that she did not believe that the polls would turn around. Allison, a former Defense Department official, added that while there has been “some measurable progress on security, the political situation has actually deteriorated.”

But other panelists cited reasons for cautious optimism. Bilmes said progress was “conceivable” in northern Iraq, where the largely Kurdish population has announced a major oil deal.

Shaw questioned the consequences of losing, saying, “It will become much more dangerous in that part of the world.”

He added that the geographical distribution of Iraq’s distinct ethnic and religious populations, as well as the uneven distribution of oil and water resources, impede any plan to divide Iraq.

Bilmes said that the war has “several layers of cost,” including “deployment and taking care of [troops] when they come home.” She said that more than a third of the 720,000 that have already returned are receiving care through the Veterans Benefits Administration.

She also cast doubt on the possibility of sustaining Iraqi security forces, who she termed the “lynch pin” of the current strategy. Of the 190,000 Iraqis who compose the forces, 6,000 have been killed and 40,000 wounded.

“If we’re losing them at this rate,” she asked, “how will we get anyone to do this job?”

When asked if any of them favored a complete a withdrawal of troops, Allison, Bilmes, and Sewall were all sympathetic to such a plan, but none felt that realities on the ground permitted a complete withdrawal as of yet.

In response to a question from an undergraduate about the war’s effect on the United States’ reputation abroad, Allison said that the country’s reputation has “fallen further and faster than any country in history.”

—Staff writer S. Jesse Zwick can be reached at jzwick@fas.harvard.edu.

CORRECTION: Due to an editing error, the Sept. 18 news article "Pessimism Pervades Iraq Panel" incorrectly identified Rep. Clay Shaw of Florida as a Democrat. He is a Republican.