Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, a graduate of the Kennedy School of Government, has emerged as one of two leading candidates to be the next Mexican president.

According to a poll conducted earlier this month by the Mexican newspaper Reforma, Calderón is trailing closely behind former Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, his main opponent, by a seven percent margin.

Calderón “is the perfect candidate,” said Jeffrey A. Frankel, Harper professor of capital formation and growth at the Kennedy School. “The candidate on the left is very popular,” Frankel said, referring to Lopez Obrador.

“Overcoming that lead is going to be a challenge,” he added.

Although the campaign is still in its early stages with the election taking place on Jul. 2, Calderón is gaining ground.

A visiting professor in Latin American studies at the Kennedy School, Alejandro Poire, said that Calderón is seen as “a reformer and as a competent man,” and that this would be an interesting election.

“It is the first time ever that we are going to be having a presidential election and the outcome of the election is completely uncertain and the electoral institution is regarded as completely democratic,” Poire said. “To that extent it is the first normal election in Mexico’s history.”

Poire is on a panel studying the upcoming Mexican election along with Dillon Professor of International Affairs Jorge I. Dominguez and scholars from other American universities.

Poire added that at this stage of the last election, the candidate from Calderón’s party, President Vicente Fox, was also second in most polls.

Fox and Calderón belong to the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), and Calderón defeated the candidate supported by the president in the PAN primary.

“The kind of attributes that Calderón could bring to the electoral arena are not necessarily identified with Fox,” Poire said. “His comparative advantage relative to Fox is in areas where Fox has seemed to fail.”

To win the election, Calderón will need to gain more votes in Mexico City, Obrador’s stronghold, and in some rural areas, where a third candidate, Roberto Madrazo Pintado, has widespread support, according to Poire.

Calderón will also have to sway the many voters who are still undecided.

For this, Poire said that while on some policies Calderón should hold the center-right perspective of his party, he will need to take a less partisan stance on social issues.

“We are probably going to see a very, very tight election day,” Poire concluded.

HARVARD ROOTS

When Calderón decided to attend the Kennedy School as part of the Edward S. Mason Program, he was already a prominent figure in Mexican politics, serving as national president of his party.

Calderón graduated from the Kennedy School in 2000 with a master’s degree in public administration.

“He was so determined,” said Frankel, who taught Calderón in two of his economics courses. “He just thought it was so important that he learn the material and understand the material.”

“It’s very hard for a politician or anyone to recognize that there is one area in which they are weaker than other areas,” Frankel said.

A good knowledge of international economics is very important for someone aspiring to lead Mexico, whose economy is fast evolving, Frankel said.

“I think the things that he studied here, or at least the ones from me, will help in a very direct way,” Frankel said.

Frankel added that “you would never know” that Calderón was already a high-level politician when he was at the Kennedy School.

“He was so soft spoken in dealing with me,” Frankel said. “He’s very unassuming.”

When Frankel visited his former student in Mexico, however, he discovered that the politician Calderón “had another side to him, giving orders, etcetera.”

—Staff writer Claire M. Guehenno can be reached at guehenno@fas.harvard.edu.