The opposition party leader in Azerbaijan, a former Soviet State on the Caspian Sea, discussed the difficulty of establishing democracy in his homelandin a talk at the Center for Government and International Studies yesterday.

“There are only two ways to democratize in Azerbaijan,” said Igbal Aghazadeh, speaking through an interpreter. “One way is if the state democratizes from above...the other way is if there is international support.”

Aghazadeh, a member of parliament, expressed skepticism about the Azerbaijani government’s genuine intention to democratize, suggesting that government officials merely “create the perception that there are factors for democratization.”

Aghazadeh said that Azerbaijan’s strategic importance might attract international support for democratization.

“Azerbaijan is a key country,” he said. “If it falls, the axis between Russia and Iran could dominate the region between the Caucasus and Central Asia.”

But some audience members questioned Aghazadeh’s prescription for democratic transition.

“He felt very strongly that the only way for democratization to occur in Azerbaijan was through the influence of external actors,” said Sonia Chinn, a student at the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences who attended the talk. “I’m not sure I completely agree.”

Aghazadeh said that his country’s Muslim majority and internal cultural differences are less important obstacles to democratization than is its oil wealth.

“Where oil exists it’s very difficult to talk about democratization,” said Aghazadeh. “There’s a problem of transparency and openness. Oil money has been spent neither for democratization nor social welfare.”

Azerbaijan is part of a region too often overlooked, said to John Schoeberlein, a lecturer on anthropology and the director of the Program on Central Asia and the Caucasus, which sponsored Aghazadeh’s lecture.

“We don’t get many voices representing the Caucasus,” Schoeberlein said.

He added that it is particularly important to hear Agazadeh’s perspective because “in the case of Azerbaijan, opposition is so marginalized.”

Aghazadeh, who leads the Umid opposition party, said that he has experienced political repression first hand—he was jailed in 2003 after participating in protests following the election that year.

“The government is capable and willing to use its oppressive apparatus, and I’m saying this from the perspective of a man who has been jailed,” he said.