The Best Supporting Actor field is almost as low-intensity; out of the five nominees, Mystic River’s Tim Robbins has had the lion’s share of awards momentum, and few think that he’ll be denied a statue. Charlize Theron has a lock on Best Actress: she played against type six ways to Sunday, and Roger Ebert has led the same “Best...acting...ever” critical charge that helped propel Halle Berry to her Monster’s Ball Oscar two years ago. And if Return of the King doesn’t win Best Picture (and director Peter Jackson doesn’t win Best Director), it’ll be the biggest upset since Miramax bought the 1999 Best Picture Oscar for Shakespeare in Love.
The Academy loves to shake things up by handing awards off to unexpected choices, but I just can’t see it happening in any category this year. Do you think that any of the dark horses have a chance? Or will the show’s only suspense be the question of how Billy Crystal spoofs last year’s Brody/Berry kiss? (Jack Palance, get out your breath spray.)
BEN B. CHUNG: Of course you can’t “see it happening this year,” Ben. Isn’t that the point of why we watch the Oscars in the first place? Nobody went into last year’s awards thinking Roman Polanski or Adrien Brody had a chance at winning their awards; both were nominated in categories that became two-way races (Rob Marshall and Martin Scorcese for Director, Jack Nicholson and Daniel Day-Lewis for Best Actor) of which neither was considered a viable contender. Their richly deserved triumphs for their work in 2002’s best film not only made the show’s third act immediately exciting (could The Pianist actually ride its momentum to defeat long-standing favorite Chicago?), it offered enough shockers, open-mouthed and otherwise, to renew many viewers’ faith in the Academy for years to come.
This year is no different, and I can’t accept your contention that the big awards are predictable, because I disagree with two of your choices and foresee possible upsets in two others. Peter Jackson and his trilogy have pulled so far ahead in the Director and Picture races that their competitors can barely see them, even if they happen to be blind in one eye.
On the other hand, Best Actor seems like it will end in a photo finish, with Lost in Translation’s Bill Murray a nose ahead of Sean Penn. I personally felt Ben Kingsley had the performance of the year, and his visceral anguish in House of Sand and Fog was a masterfully controlled performance, especially when contrasted with Penn’s rather blunt stabs at the agony of child loss (slam table here, deliver choked up yelp there).
Kingsley won’t win the Oscar, but will likely siphon enough tragedy-embracing voters from Penn, whose chances aren’t improved by the fact that he has stopped campaigning for the award, to give Murray the win. You speak of Penn’s four nominations; well, Murray hasn’t been nominated once despite the often remarkable work he’s done in the past, and all of the Lost in Translation fans that pushed it to a Best Picture nod will vote for his nuanced work. I think there’s even room here for a Johnny Depp upset; Academy voters love hookers with hearts of gold, and in Pirates of the Caribbean, he’s certainly dressed for the part.
As for Supporting Actress, I think most analysts recognize by now that Renee peaked too big, too early. I may be partially biased in that I thought she horribly misjudged her Cold Mountain role and delivered it with such intolerable garishness that by film’s end, I almost wished Jack White would mistake her for a Von Bondie. But even Miramax seems to admit that she’s lost her momentum, opening room for a victory by a member of your so-called “weak field.” That reference surely comes from someone who has not yet seen House of Sand and Fog, because Shohreh Aghdashloo’s achievement as an Irani expatriate with a fragile command of the English language is about as compelling as acting can get. It’s usually difficult to predict this category, but not when it includes a performance this complete.
I agree that Charlize Theron and Tim Robbins will probably follow up their various critics circles victories with Oscars, but I wouldn’t fully count out the return of early favorite Diane Keaton or a late-minute surge for Djimon Honsou.
I also think it’s rather careless that you’ve defined the Oscars by the Big Six; admittedly those are the only categories that most viewers really care about, but that hardly diminishes the relevance the rest of the awards. There are some exciting races lower on the ballot, and our role as critics is to draw attention to the artistry beneath the household name-recognition.
Best Adapted Screenplay could logically go to any one of its nominees except, perhaps, to the most deserving, the Portuguese-language gangster epic City of God. Capturing the Friedmans and Fog of War seemed locked in a taut two-man battle for Documentary Feature until My Architect quietly reaped enough attention to bestow it front-runner status. The Return of the King will likely sweep up most of the technical awards as Best Picture forerunners are prone to do, but the vivid restoration of 19th century Japan in The Last Samurai will give it a run for its money in Art Direction and Costume.
An unfortunate side note on this discussion is that people don’t necessarily watch the Oscars because they want to see surprises. The highest-rated broadcasts often feature races that are the easiest to predict; the most-watched show to date was the year Titanic was guaranteed to cast all of its competitors to sea. The audience seems primarily concerned with seeing their favorite movies get big shiny statues, and by that logic, this year’s show will likely garner huge ratings.
So do you think The Return of the King deserves that bald gold man? I’ll hold off on my own opinion until you respond…
BEN J. SOSKIN: Yep, The Pianist’s Oscar wins were stunners. They weren’t entirely unexpected, though—the normally off-the-wall National Society of Film Critics predicted all three of its big wins (Director, Actor and Screenplay) two months before the Oscars.
Besides, The Pianist’s Academy trifecta was the biggest dark-horse Oscar upset in our lifetimes; what was the last year that a film won in at least three of the top eight categories when it wasn’t the odds-on favorite in any of them? The only year in the last twenty that I could make a case for was 1992, when The Silence of the Lambs swept the Oscars in a year when most were predicting victories for Bugsy, JFK, or The Prince of Tides. We shouldn’t expect numerous Oscar shockers in a single ceremony; 2003’s Oscars were something of a fluke.
Since I last wrote, the Screen Actors Guild Awards—considered the best bellwether for the Oscars’ Acting categories—have come and gone, and they’ve pretty much confirmed my predictions; Theron, Robbins and Zellweger all won in their respective categories. I don’t think Zellweger can act, but I do think that she’s due for an Oscar, and unless Shohreh Aghdashloo has starred in Chinatown, Rosemary’s Baby and Repulsion, I don’t see much chance that Renee will be upset. Aghdashloo wasn’t even nominated for a SAG; this doesn’t make an Oscar win for her impossible—Marcia Gay Harden got no SAG nomination for Pollock and walked off with the Oscar—but it does make a victory for her further unlikely. If Aghdashloo wins, it’ll be a jaw-dropper.
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