This week, I am taking the opportunity to predict the political history of the future. I figure if I’m wrong, nobody will remember in four years. And if I’m right, nobody will remember in four years, but hey, at least I’ll have it in writing. Curious? Well, here goes.

First of all, President Bush’s honeymoon is over. People are starting to realize that they went to bed with a compassionate and woke up with a conservative. The president jokingly called Bush II is actually too conservative to be called Reagan II. Since taking office, Bush has taken action on issues such as abortion and the environment that go beyond conservative hopes. As Time reports, even many conservative consultants are shocked by Bush, though they are not complaining. But Bush’s stands have not just surpassed conservatives’ expectations, they have, in some cases, broken campaign pledges, and this won’t fly. Voters know that Candidate Bush tread softly on abortion and promised not to repeal certain environment measures. Now there’s liberty and arsenic for all.

In addition, Bush’s foreign policy has been a tragedy, alternating between slapstick and sloppy. Some of this is not his fault. Sinking Japan’s boat and crashing China’s plane are not his doing. But scaring Russia, China and Japan by refusing to negotiate on national missile defense—that’s his fault. Embarrassing our old ally South Korea and our new acquaintance to their north by refusing to continue opening relations with North Korea—his fault. Failing to take initiative in the Middle East, despite being begged by regional leaders (Ariel Sharon gave up and left the White House to go meet with Michael Jackson)—his fault. Chilling relations with Russia and China to near-Cold War temperatures—you get the point.

Furthermore, it is only a matter of time before Americans realize that Bush’s foreign policy team hasn’t agreed on a single thing. In fact, most of them don’t even get along. Cheney and Rumsfeld have fought bitterly with Colin Powell for the last decade, and I’m not sure any of them even know who Condi Rice is. It will also not be long until people lose their romantic and heroic notions about Colin Powell. Though Americans love to talk him up as a political godsend who can do no wrong, the hard truth is that the man has rarely, if ever, had a correct political or military instinct. That’s why Powell is largely relegated to figurehead status in this administration.

Turning elsewhere, we can watch one of the most embarrassing ex-presidencies ever unfold before our eyes. Bill cannot get a Diet Coke without screwing up, and Hillary can’t watch him do it without somehow aiding and abetting and then trying to make up for it with such phoniness that only Barney Frank is fooled. Her latest endeavor was to support a bill that sets limits on lobbying for presidential pardon. This is absurdity in such a pure state that nobody except the New York Post has even bothered to touch it, instead choosing to marvel at such a rare gem with Bill O’Reilly-esque glee.

The net result of the events since January is shocking. There is only one person who has emerged from this mess looking good. I never thought I would see the day that Al Gore would rise up to glory as the shining light of hope, the hero of the people, and the savior of those who don’t watch Fox Cable News, but that day is nigh.

This is a huge shock to me, and I admit that I had Gore’s post-election prospects pegged dead wrong. I figured he would go off across America searching as vocally for his lost votes as O.J. is for the “real killer.” I had expected him to make embarrassingly awkward and semi-legal statements every few weeks in between failed tries at running for a local school board. I was wrong. Gore has been the model ex-official, especially in the Clinton administration. Instead of screwing up, Gore has kept a low profile and let Clinton take the full rap for his own scandals, scandals that mostly occurred after the two stopped talking to each other.

In light of Bush’s coming nose-dive, Gore will soon start to look more than palatable to Americans, and he is now free enough from scandals for this to mean something. I am predicting a major victory for Congressional Democrats in 2002, and, to quote what will no doubt be the future slogan, Gore in ’04. Also, I’m going to take this opportunity to predict that election night will come down to New Jersey, New Jersey, New Jersey because, like I said, nobody’s going to remember in four years.

Joshua I. Weiner ’03 is a government concentrator in Leverett House. His column appears on alternate Wednesdays.