Relations between China and the U.S. have been uncomfortably strained in the past few months, due in large part to the hard-line tactics of the Bush administration. Given the continuing standoff over a downed spy plane and Bush’s characterization of China as a “strategic competitor,” tensions between the two powers have escalated. But one particularly divisive measure—perhaps the most important in Sino-U.S. relations—is a proposed sale of submarines and the Aegis radar system to Taiwan. In this particularly tense time, the arms sale proposed by the Bush administration would be extremely ill-advised and could cause irreparable harm to the relationship between China and the U.S.

Determining the exact status of Taiwan is a diplomatic nightmare. Because of its history, Taiwan is symbolically critical to the current government of China, representing the last remnants of the Nationalists, their predecessors and political enemies. Moreover, the current government of China has portrayed the retaking of territory held in the Qing dynasty—such as Hong Kong, Tibet and Macao —as a symbol of its resurgence in the face of Western opposition. On the other hand, traditional American foreign policy has portrayed Taiwan as a foothold of democracy against Communism. To avoid conflict on the issue, the two sides have agreed to a detente over the issue—the U.S. officially recognizes only “One China,” and China has moderated its rhetoric of reconquest.

Bush’s proposed arms sale would send a strong signal to the Chinese government that the U.S. is no longer interested in maintaining the peaceful status quo. Besides the bad timing of the move, the sale could be construed as giving Taiwan offensive capability0. In the past, we have sold only defensive weapons to Taiwan, but the submarines included in the proposed deal could be used for the purpose of attack. The Bush administration should tread lightly over this issue, understanding that Taiwan is too important to the Chinese for them to ignore any aggressive moves.

But the arms sale seems unjustified even within the context of American foreign policy. The U.S. recognizes one China and concedes that Taiwan is a province of China while still selling arms to it. It is a strange policy to sell weapons to a province within a country; Taiwan is not an independent country, and it is not recognized by the international community. Granted, the United States has strong interests in Taiwan and should protect these interests, but subtlety is required for dealing with such a sensitive situation. It is clear that the United States would defend Taiwan if China attacked, but this silent threat should be enough to preserve peace. Selling the Taiwanese weapons will not settle the dispute diplomatically, and it will only exacerbate the current tensions.

The best result possible at the moment is maintaining the status quo. China’s government is in a position where it cannot back down for fear of seeming weak to its own people, but it will not attack Taiwan, because it understands that such a move would ignite a war. By selling arms to Taiwan we have everything to lose and nothing to gain. The Bush administration should take a far more conciliatory approach to rescue what friendly ties still remain.