The reasons why democracy exists are difficult to define and even trickier to implement properly, UCLA political scientist James Q. Wilson remarked to an intimate audience in an Institute of Politics Speech at the ARCO Forum last night.

"I would characterize the two leading events of this century as the rise of democracy and the rise of genocide," said Wilson, who served as Harvard's Shattuck professor of government from 1961 to 1986. "Democracy is so rare and unlikely that we must ask why it exists at all."

Wilson's speech began by outlining what are often the perceived causes of democracy in any society, namely the existence of constitutions, great democratic thinkers in the society and many religious groups. However, Wilson claimed of these three causes, the existence of multiple religions is crucial to the success of democracy in any given country.

"If people take seriously the golden rule, they are more likely to display tolerance," Wilson said. "Religion surely makes a difference."

Although a multiplicity of religions, the existence of constitutions and great democratic minds are important to the formation of democracy, Wilson stressed that the three necessary elements to the survival of democracy are isolated geography, laws protecting private property and a sense of "mystery."

Isolation from other countries allows a nation to foster beginning attempts at democracy.

"The freest nations in the world were those protected from invasion. The isolation of those nations made it possible for democracy to begin in those places," Wilson said.

On the importance of private property to sustaining democracy, Wilson said "the existence of private property created and sustained the idea of personal equality and freedom."

Wilson said a sense of "mystery" is perhaps the most important cause of democracy, noting the tension between the desire for individual rights and the acceptance of others'--often-conflicting--needs.

"How do people acquire a settled belief in their rights while at the same time recognizing that other people have rights, and often competing rights?" he asked, presenting the central question behind his idea of "mystery."

Applying his standards for democratic success, Wilson reserved little hope for the future of democracy in non-English speaking nations and in Russia and China. He said he doubts that democracy will survive in many newly democratic countries and does not believe Russia or China will ever acquire true democracies.

"There is nothing in the history of Russia and China to give anyone the slightest hope of democracy," he said.

After the speech, Marc Stad '01 said he agreed with Wilson's "textbook definitions of democracy," but disagreed with the speaker's pessimistic outlook for the future of Russian and Chinese democracy.

"I do think they will pull through and find a democracy," Stad remarked. "We should empower Russia and China."

Alexander F. Rubalcava '02, who also attended yesterday's address, sided with Wilson.

"I think [Wilson's] views on Russia and China are pessimistic but realistic," he said.