Could those little golden men be contemplating hara-kiri with those swords? Perhaps, if they had any idea of the farce they seem poised to act out Monday night.

The key player in the farce? That bloated, hysterically overhyped ship which still shows no signs of sinking. Nor do the other major contenders alleviate the anti-Titanic moviegoer's gloom. This year's nominations are, by and large, a case study in the power of Hollywood hype. But hey, what else are the Oscars for? If it's recognition of creative force you're looking for, better check out the evening wear on Oscar night. If it's good taste, I'm afraid you're out of luck.

Titanic will most likely clean house among the smaller awards--the sole exception being, possibly, a well-deserved win for best cinematography for Kundun. As for the rest, there's no help for it; best just turn the TV off when Celine Dion comes on stage.

What do Tilda Swinton in Female Perversions, Debbi Morgan in Eve's Bayou, and Russell Crowe and Kevin Spacy in L.A. Confidential all have in common? Two things, actually. First, to my thinking, they are the deserving winners of the four acting awards at this year's Academy Awards.

Second, none of them are even nominated. [Author here rolls his eyes, or spits on the pavement, or blasphemes the gods who smiled on Geoffrey Rush and Marisa Tomei.]

But honestly, griping about the Oscars is not only a futile occupation, it's banal and overpracticed. Why waste the time or the print? Instead, accepting the nominees as given, here's my breakdown on who will, could and should walk off with the little Golden Guy.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The hands-down favorite here is L.A. Confidential, and it deserves to win; however, the competition is high-quality, including Donnie Brasco and The Sweet Hereafter.

Best Original Screenplay

This one's a sure bet: media darlings Matt Damon and Ben Affleck for Good Will Hunting. Hollywood simply can't get over the fact that two actors can actually write a successful movie script (and still be so darn cute!). Their screenplay is far from being as good as everyone's making it out to be, but the other nominees don't have that much more compelling a claim--though The Full Monty manages to balance its killingly funny physical gags with a surprisingly poignant, though too easily resolved, storyline.

Screenplays and Other Categories During Which You Run to the Bathroom

In the script adaptation race, L.A. Confidential has the dual virtue of both deserving to win and being assured of doing so. For original scripts, Good Will Hunting is a lock, but without the year's most deserving competitors--Eve's Bayou, The Apostle and In the Company of Men--it's a win for style over substance. Titanic should sweep the Cinematography, Art Direction and Costume Design awards, even though L.A. Confidential had crisper photography and The Wings of the Dove had more dramatically loaded sartorials. No gripes with the Art Direction win though; you break that much porcelain and flood your set three times, an Oscar is the least of what you deserve.

Best Actress

WILL WIN Count out Christie, whose film was barely seen (and not that great), and Winslet, who delivered lines like "I'd rather be Jack's whore than your wife!" In the Dueling British Ladies contest, Judi Dench in Mrs. Brown, who won the Golden Globe, has more momentum than The Wings of the Dove's Helena Bonham Carter. So the race is between Dench and Helen Hunt, also a Globe winner. Give Hunt the edge, since she won the Screen Actors Guild and is the only American nominee--that's how Tomei beat four Limeys in 1992.

SHOULD WINHunt, who overcame the reductive, implausible and emotionally dishonest script ofAs Good As It Gets to create a full-bodied, graceful, intelligent woman.