In anticipation of President Clinton's upcoming national debate on Social Security, five experts in the field debated possible reform measures at the ARCO Forum of Public Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government (KSG) yesterday afternoon.

The panelists, whom moderator Jeff B. Liebman called "five of the most influential voices in the debate over social security," differed on specifics, but all agreed reform is necessary.

Several panelists favored replacing the current federally-funded system with a privatized plan.

"The U.S. social security system is in a crisis," said Larry J. Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University.

Panelist Carolyn L. Weaver, who is director of Social Security and Pension Studies at American Enterprise Institute, advocated a privatized plan where individuals can direct savings toward their own retirements.

Weaver served on a 13-member presidential advisory council formed in 1995 to assess the state of social security.

She noted that the public increasingly supports dramatic change in the current system.

"Whereas five years ago, the idea of privatized social security was rejected, now people around the nation, including scholars at leading universities are considering private models," Weaver said.

According to Kotlikoff, one generation will have to bear the costs of the current systems sooner or later.

"We really do need to make dramatic changes that are fair to our kids," he said. "Unless we deal with this [problem] once and for all correctly, we're just going to make it worse."

Other panelists--including Alicia H. Munnell, Drucker Chair in Management Sciences at Boston College, and Robert Kuttner, co-editor of American Prospect magazine--supported the current system.

"Social Security is one of our most successful programs," Munnell said. "The problems of our current system are manageable."

Panelists were divided on projected statistics demonstrating that the trust fund will expire by 2029--a problem they attributed to the increasing ratio of retirees to workers.

"This date is an implosion," Munnell said. "Even after [2029], there are sufficient funds to sustain most of the program."

Kuttner agreed with Munnell, saying the projections were "too pessimistic."

John C. Rother, director of legislation and public policy for the American Association of Retired Persons, who was also on the panel, emphasized the many functions of Social Security.

"[It] is not just about retirement; it's about protection from lifetime risks, [such as] the death of a breadwinner, the risk of no longer being able to work," Rother said. "We've got to keep in mind that those protections are extremely important."

Rother discussed five crucial elements that he believes must be included in reform. "First is timing; it's better to do this early, preferably in a non-election year," he said.

"1999 is our window of opportunity," he added.

Weaver agreed that 1999 was "the right year for reform."

Bi-partisan efforts, guaranteed protections, shared sacrifices across generations and the consideration of women were other aspects that Rother said were indispensable to an effective proposal.

The panel discussion was the first of four on social security, as part of the "Spring Exercise" for Kennedy School students.

"Classes have stopped for the last two weeks; the 'Spring Exercise' is a perfect time to integrate a timely issue into all parts of the curriculum," Liebman said.