Uncertainly over the future of medicine and the rigors of medical school admission has led students to think twice about applying.

After a large jump in applicants to medical school in 1995, the number of applicants is starting to show signs of decreasing.

Harvard Medical School (HMS), U.S. News and World Report's top-ranked school, has seen fairly steady applicant numbers in recent years.

In 1994, 3,425 students applied to HMS. Of those, 235 were accepted and 165 entered the class. The next year, of the 3,914 applicants, 221 were accepted and 165 matriculated. Last year, a whopping 3,956 students applied, 215 were accepted and 164 matriculated.

But the upward trend collapsed this year, when only 3,708 students applied to HMS, 6 percent fewer than in 1995.

Of those applicants, the number of students accepted has not yet been released. Admissions officers say those statistics will not be made available until after the incoming class has matriculated next fall.

"[That] is about average for us the past couple of years," says Mohan D. Boodram, assistant director of financial aid at HMS.

Johns Hopkins Medical School, ranked second in the U.S. behind HMS, also saw a slight decrease in 1997 applicants. Admissions officers at at the school reported between 200 to 300 fewer applicants this year.

The University of Michigan Medical School also experienced a decrease in the number of applicants this year, with about 100 fewer people applying.

According to LeeAnn Michelson '77, the health career advisor at Office of Career Services, these statistics reflect a larger trend. She says admissions officers have told her that the numbers of new applicants to medical school nationwide has decreased.

"When I've talked to admissions directors at [other medical] schools, they've generally been saying that the numbers have slowed down," Michelson says.

This decrease follows a recent dramatic increase in medical school applications only two years before. Since then, she says the number of people applying has slowed down.

"[In] 1996, the number of applicants nationwide did go up, but very slightly, less than 1 percent," she says.

In 1995, about 14 percent of Harvard's graduating class applied to medical school, the largest number of applicants since 1977, Michelson says. Six years before the jump in applicants, only 7 percent of the class applied.

A Falling Tide?

In the past year, applications to Harvard Medical School have slipped.

Source: Harvard Medical School Admissions

"National statistics parallel the rise in Harvard-Radcliffe applications," she says.

Whitney B. Edmister, a pre-med tutor in Currier, says he has also noted a decrease in applicants to medical school, but that there is a definite increase since he applied to medical school six years ago.

Edmister, who applied to medical school in 1991, says it was much easier to get in then. As a matter of fact, he says the number of applicants has doubled in the past six years.

"When I applied, I remember that two out of three applicants [got into medical school]," he says. "Currently, I think it's slightly less than one out of three."

Reasons for Decline

Edmister and Michelson say that although there has been a decline in the number of new applicants to medical school, the numbers do not necessarily reflect this because many students are re-applying.

"I know for a fact...that the number of new applicants to medical school has dropped slightly," Edmister says. "But the total of number has increased because there are a number of applicants who did not get in on their first try and have taken time off [and are re-applying]."

Michelson agrees with Edmister, saying many students are taking time off after college to make sure they really want to go to medical school.

"I don't think there are as many new applicants," Michelson says. "I think more students are also taking some time to think about this."

Edmister says the number of students' applying to medical school has dropped partially because students are discouraged by the ever-changing health care field as well as the uncertainty of the amount of money doctors will make once they start practicing.

"[Students] know that it's a difficult process," says the second-year resident tutor. "Also, medicine is really in flux right now. There are a lot of questions about how much doctors are going to be able to make when they are done with the process."

The lingering questions over the future salaries of doctors may deter low-income students from applying to medical school because the high debt they will accumulate in school is not guaranteed to "pay off" when they graduate, according to Edmister.

Additionally, residency cutbacks and managed care are definitely "big issues," he says.

"It's unclear how much control doctors are going to have over the care of their individual patients in the near future," Edmister says.

Michelson also attributes the decrease in applicants to discouraging statistics about medical school acceptance rates as well as the current instability of the health care system.

"There's a lot of uncertainty in medicine in terms of what will happen in the future and I think students are a bit confused and are trying to get a bit more experience before they commit themselves," she says.

Harvard Students and Medical Schools

Number of Harvard Students that apply to, and are accepted at medical schools.

Source: Association of American Medical Colleges Data Book, 1993 figures.

Despite the confusion over what lies ahead in the field of medicine, those who are sure this is the profession they want to go into have not been dissuaded.

"The students who are really motivated to go into medicine for reasons other than money are continuing to pursue it," Michelson says.

The Common Application

The difficulties students face when applying to medical schools have been eased slightly by the common application, admissions officers say.

As a matter of fact, Boodram says HMS has fewer applicants than other universities because it is one of 10 medical schools which does not participate in AMCAS, the "common application." AMCAS allows students to fill out only one application and send it to many different schools.

Of the 122 medical schools in the United States and three in Puerto Rico, 110 are part of AMCAS, Michelson says.

"Because we don't participate in the centralized AMCAS application service, our applicant pool is usually somewhat smaller than comparable institutions that do participate in AMCAS," he says. "In order to apply to HMS, students have to type out a whole additional application form."

Edmister says he thinks AMCAS is helpful to students early in the process because they only have to fill out generic information--such as their GPA, MCAT score and grades--but is not beneficial later on.

"I think at the start of the process, it's helpful for the student..in that they submit one standard application," he says. "[But] in the long run, the AMCAS does not help the students out because a lot of schools will send students a secondary application."

Edmister says many AMCAS schools ask for more money for the additional application fee and require students to write more essays for that particular medical school.

Michelson says, however, that AMCAS is not the sole deterrent from people's applying to medical schools such as Harvard. Often the reputation of a school plays a role in intimidating applicants.

"I think people screen themselves out too," Michelson says. "People really do look at their state schools if they're concerned at all about money.