Buoyed by the fall of rent control and an overall desire for change among Cambridge voters, conservative candidates endorsed by the Alliance for Change are optimistic about their chances to gain control of city offices in the November 7 election.

Although the Cambridge Civic Association (CCA) has held a tenuous one vote majority on both the city council and the school committee since 1989, observers say they expect the balance of power to shift to the alliance.

"I think we're seeing conservatism becoming more respectable in Cambridge," said Donald L.K. Trumbull, chair of the Cambridge Republican Committee.

Much of the CCA's base came from supporters of rent control, a 1970 initiative repealed by statewide referendum last November. Without their main issue, CCA candidates may be in trouble.

"The conventional wisdom is that the CCA is going to lose a seat," said Jon R. Maddox, an Alliance-backed school committee candidate.

"Rent control guaranteed votes from tenants and the more transient elements of the population. But now that it has been lifted, we're seeing a major realignment," Maddox said.

Gretna J. Bohn-Hayden, a neighborhood activist, said she thinks many of the 4,000 citizens who have been dropped from the voting lists since last election were tenants in rent-controlled properties who have left Cambridge.

By contrast, the new tenants tend to be from more conservative background, she said.

"Just in my building, several people moved....I'm positive they were liberals and I know [the new tenants] are not," Bohn-Hayden said.

The emergence of the Christian Coalition of Greater Boston, head-quartered in Cambridge, underscores the growing conservative mood in the city.

The group boasts some 150 active members in Cambridge and is helping to draw attention to its family values platform, according to coalition chair A. George Catavolo.

"They're mentioning us in the newspaper every day, so there's no doubt we're in the back of everyone's mind," he said.

But property taxes rather than social policy have been the focus of Alliance candidates, who are increasingly critical of the many city services financed by citizens' tax dollars.

Alliance candidates have pledged to eliminate some city commissions, consolidate offices and trim peripheral areas of the city and school committee budgets.

"Voters want candidates who will guard their taxes and make sure they're getting their money's worth," former City Councillor William H. Walsh said.

Some CCA candidates seem to have noticed the growing discontent and made efforts to demonstrate their desire to please these voters.

Taking a stance at odds with CCA's platform for increased city services, CCA-endorsed incumbent councillor Katherine Triantifillou recently proposed a two percent cut in the city budget.

"The other side realizes the trend is leaning away from them," said Maddox, who called Triantafillou's proposal "a pre-emptive strike."

Indeed, the smallest realignment could have a major impact on next week's elections, as a handful of votes have often made the difference between the final candidates chosen.

"The shift of 150 votes in the last election would have given non-CCA candidates a majority," said Republican Trumbull.

Slate Voting

Conservative candidates have taken another strategic step to help insure that they pick up a majority of the offices.

Conservatives have historically campaigned as independent candidates while the CCA-endorsed slates have benefited from proportional voting, a complex process whereby voters rank candidates in order of preference and votes are then distributed among the candidates.

Slate voting allows groups to pick up transfer ballots from across the city and places independent candidates at a disadvantage.

But this election marks the christening of the conservative Alliance for Change, a slate which unites the independents in the hopes of gaining more transfer votes.

"The Alliance is coming into its own as a slate," Maddox said."

According to observers, the combination of slate voting and disgruntled voters may tip the scales in favor of alliance-endorsed James J. McSweeney, Jr.

Many feel that the final seat on the council will go either to McSweeney, who fell 47 votes shy of election in 1993, or CCA-endorsed Henrietta A. Davis, who has served on the school committee since 1987.

McSweeney said he expects to benefit from an electorate which is "looking for some creativity and some new ideas."

"I think the whole country is going that way," he said