The midterm national elections will be a barometer for determining which political party is gaining control, Boston Globe columnist John Ellis said yesterday during a discussion at the Institute of Politics (IOP).

In his talk, given as part of the IOP Afternoon Discussion Series, the former NBC producer gave impressions and predictions for the 1994 elections and beyond.

Ellis said he believes there are three themes that dominate national elections--national security, national economy and national culture.

But he said none of the three are controlled by either the Republicans or the Democrats at this point, thus setting up the 1994 elections as a benchmark for determining party strength.

Ellis predicted that the Democrats will lose 20 to 30 seats in the House and as many as six in the Senate. President Clinton would then face a "working opposition," Ellis said--a coalition of legislators who would be aligned against him, even though he would still enjoy theoretical control.

Ellis said the likelihood of this "working opposition" is what led to Clinton's appointment of Leon Panetta--whom Ellis said is liked and respected on Capitol Hill--as Chief of Staff.

The appointment will be crucial because Clinton "has got to get what he wants done now," before the "working opposition" scenario comes to pass, Ellis said.

Clinton may then attempt to drive the Republican party farther to the right, a strategy reminiscent of Nixon's attempt to push the Democrats farther left after the midterm elections of 1970, Ellis said.

Hoping to amplify the voices of the far right, Ellis said, the Administration could conduct a series of appointments, programs and speeches designed to raise the ire of religious fundamentalists--and Republican activists--like Rev. Pat Robertson and Rev. Jerry Falwell.

Ellis also detailed the takeover of many state Republican party organizations by the Christian right, a phenomenon which he said is splitting the party and harming its national viability.

"[The newcomers are] basically people who the old Republicans wouldn't let into their country clubs," he said.

This new influence, along with the instability of the "[Ross] Perot Phenomenon" has the "capability to destroy the Republican party altogether."

Ellis warmed that the Republicans must avoid "the classic trap of 'If the incumbent is unpopular, and I'm not the incumbent, then I will win'" stressing that Republican candidates still lose to Clinton in polls.

Ellis said he sees the presidential election of 1996 being battled out in California, with the Republicans turning to Gov. Pete Wilson as a Vice Presidential candidate to help on that score.

He said Clinton will be forced to virtually concede many states in the Deep South and Far West, while the Republicans will concentrate on swing states such as Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey and Ohio.

Ellis predicted, however, that Clinton will indeed be re-elected.