Super Tuesday, the 1988 creation of Southern leaders attempting to bring electoral power back to Dixie, may finally come of age today.
Twenty-one states lined up Democratic primaries and caucuses on this Tuesday four years ago, but organizers were shocked by a the result: a runaway victory by New England Democrat Michael S. Dukakis and a strong showing by the liberal Rev. Jesse Jackson.
By all accounts, 1992 should be a different story. Native son Bill Clinton, the five-term governor of Arkansas, is expected to sweep or nearly sweep the seven Southern states voting today.
The creators of Super Tuesday may finally see their dream realized. In all, 11 states will hosting Democratic contests and 783 of the total 4288 convention delegates are at stake.
It is certainly of help to Clinton that all six states bordering Arkansas--Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Texas--have contests today. The candidate's home state popularity has clearly crossed state lines.
Texas in particular, with its 196 delegates, may emerge as one of the most important victories of the Clinton campaign.
President George Bush, too, is relying on strong finishes in the South as the Republicans hold eight primaries with 420 of 2209 total delegates at stake.
While Bush is expected to win every race, conservative challenger Patrick J. Bushanan may show significant strength in some states.
Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke will likely attract his greatest support in the South. Many pundits speculate that he will reach double digits in his home state of Louisiana.
Whatever the outcome, the voice of the South will be heard more clearly than in 1988. Candidates were forced that year to spread themselves so thin over such a wide area that few Southern concerns were addressed in detail.
Florida is shaping up as Super Tuesday's biggest battleground. Clinton has been joined by former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas and the two were still going at it in the state last night.
In a December straw poll, a 53-percent majority of Florida Democratic convention delegates voted for Clinton, while only two percent chose Tsongas.
Now the two candidates are running nearly neck-and-neck. Almost every major Florida newspaper endorsed Tsongas, but Clinton has an organized volunteer network in the state that could be the critical difference in a close election.
Former California Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. may also be a factor in the battle for the South. Just a handful of second-place showings could significantly increase his national prominence.
Brown will probably pick up votes from the recent departure of Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. Harkin's decision to bail out leaves Brown as the most liberal remaining candidate.
The best chance for Tsongas and Brown come in the states which have received less attention--Mas- A recent poll by The Boston Glove gave Tsongasa 56 percent edge over Clinton in the Bay State.Brown had the support of only six percent ofvoters, but a last minute rally on Boston Commonyesterday may help boost that figure. Candidates also swept through tiny. RhodeIsland yesterday, where 22 Democratic delegatesand 15 Republican delegates are at stake. As inall of New England, a recession-encouraged protestvote for Buchanan could embarass Bush there. And Delaware, which has been virtually ignored,holds a Democratic caucus today. Party leaders inthe Constitution State have been encouragingvoters to stay uncommitted, but Tsongas isexpected to fare well. The Democratic Party also holds caucuses inHawaii today. Clinton's friendship with Gov. JohnWaihee is expected to give him the victory
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