Why would you listen to a writer who couldn't even reach the .500 level in predicting Ivy League football games last year?

Why would you trust someone who wrote that Cornell would finish dead last in the 1987-88 ECAC standings? Or that Wyoming would capture the 1988 NCAA basketball championship--when this writer didn't select Wyoming as a Final Four team?

Why do your best EF Hutton after this writer said last spring that the Yankees would face the Mets in the 1988 World Series, Wade Boggs would hit .400 and Eric Davis would smack 50 homers?

Why? Because this writer is due to nail a prediction. No one can go O-for-eternity.

Pay attention, class: The Harvard hockey team will defeat Boston College in the first round of the Beanpot Tournament tonight at Boston Garden. It will mark the first time since 1981 that Harvard has captured a first-round 'Pot game.

Here's more: Next Monday night against Boston University, the Crimson will win the Beanpot. Coach Bill Cleary will crush the heavy boulder that has rested on his back for the last eight years, and life will be good again.

But what about Wyoming, you say?

That was before this writer figured out what was wrong. Before, during the days of predicting Columbia to win all its games, this writer never thought about his predictions. He used to let the others think. Emotion, a hunch, which team had the better uniform was what guided him.

This year's Beanpot has changed all that. This writer has researched the results of every 'Pot game played. He has studied the architectural structure of the Garden. He has consulted the stars, observed the flight patterns of wild geese and memorized the subway map of Boston.

All this analysis has made this writer tired, but smarter. He can now present his reasons why Harvard will win the Beanpot this year:

The presidential theory (by former Harvard manager Mike Monroe): Harvard Coach Bill Cleary unveiled this theory after Harvard's 11-1 win over Army Saturday at Bright Center.

According to Monroe's research, Harvard wins Beanpots when presidential successions occur.

When Richard Nixon entered the White House in 1969, the Crimson defeated Boston University, 5-3, a few weeks later in the title game.

Although Gerald Ford may have not been the most exciting of the post-war presidents, he will always be a favorite with Cleary. In 1974, Ford bored Washington, D.C., but Harvard took the 'Pot.

In 1977, Jimmy Carter's voice echoed through the walls of the Garden when Harvard won. Ronald "Dutch" Reagan began to mold his legacy in 1981 while the Crimson shut out Boston College, 2-0, to capture the Beanpot.

"If we do win it this year," Cleary said. "Bush won't get a vote in the next election. We're not going to wait another eight years."

If the theory holds this year, then the prospect of having Vice President Dan Quayle assume the office of the presidency within the next four years might be what Harvard wants. For Harvard, the state of the Beanpot supercedes the state of the nation.

The Garden theory: Do you actually think that the venerable arena of the Celtics and the Bruins would allow Harvard to enter the building if it didn't think the Crimson would ever win another 'Pot?

Check the banners in the rafters. Teams win at the Garden. If everyone in Boston thought that Harvard would lose every first-round Beanpot game for the next 30 years, the Crimson would have been shipped off to Fenway Park a long time ago.

The Cleary theory: Could anyone want to win the 'Pot more than Harvard Coach Bill Cleary, one of the tournament's legendary players?

Cleary holds six 'Pot records, including most goals in a period (four) and most points in the tournament (11). The Harvard coach set all his records in the 1955 Beanpot, which Harvard won.

It's been 24 years since Cleary led the Crimson to a Beanpot championship. After Cleary's memorable performance at the Garden, Harvard has won the 'Pot six times.

But everyone talks about the seven-year drought. And Cleary wants Boston to stop talking.

A 'Pot, a 'Pot, my kingdom for a 'Pot.

This writer has analyzed the situation and will stick to his prediction even if he does prefer the Northeastern uniforms to the Crimson's.

By the way, Wyoming will win the NCAA title. But that's another story.