This article is the first in a three-part series examining the transition to the Bush presidency.

In 1962 in the midst of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet Union was poised for war with the United States, panelists revealed at a conference last week in Moscow. But today, President Bush and Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev are on the verge of a brave new world of global relations.

Bush and many analysts foresee a radical change in the world's power structure that will take the ideological spin off superpower relations. One day, the new president expects, the United States will view the Soviet Union as just another country, one among many.

But to achieve these heady dreams, Bush will have to overcome a bevy of obstacles--the possibility of domestic Soviet turmoil, the hesitancy of his cabinet and a 40-year-old tradition of anti-communism.

"In a sense it's more difficult policy-wise than the old time when we knew the Russians were up to no good," says Gurney Professor of History and Political Science Adam B. Ulam.

Bush's plans hinge on the domestic success of his Soviet counterpart, foreign policy experts at Harvard and in Washington say. They say there is a wide gap between what the Soviet people expect from Gorbachev's economic reforms and what he can deliver in the near future. The growing restlessness of the Soviet population, particularly its minorities, and the barely hidden bitterness of conservative forces could cripple Gorbachev and reverse the "softening" of Soviet foreign policy.

"If you knew for sure that Gorbachev was going to be there for four years, eight years, 20 years, you could draw up a policy that would respond to his flexibility and would probably mean a brand new relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union, something we really haven't seen for 90 years," says Marshall I. Goldman, the associate director of Harvard's Russian Research Center.

"But if Gorbachev is going to be thrown out--and I think there's every reason to believe that he probably will--then if you made all kinds of accommodations on the assumption that there is a brand new world order, you could find yourself embarrassed, having to backtrack, being called a dupe and also involving yourself in some things that would be much more costly if you have to try to gear up again after what did take place," Goldman says.

So Bush could find himself in a Catch-22 situation. Caution could hasten the general secretary's demise, but zeal could come back to haunt the president if Gorbachev loses power.

If repeated Soviet proposals fall on deaf ears in the U.S., Gorbachev's opponents may label his foreign policy reforms an embarrassing failure and demand hardline dealings, says Yuen Foong Khong, an assistant professor of government who researches the psychology of diplomatic decision-making.

"Inside the Soviet Union, I've been told by people in the Central Committee that they're worried that one of the reasons why Gorbachev is being attacked is that he is viewed as simply a pushover when it comes to dealing with Reagan," says Goldman, adding that they say whenever the general secretary meets with Reagan, he "comes home without his shirt."

Not only does the president have to worry about shifts in Soviet government, he must also combat criticism from Democrats in Congress, who want the president to make the most of Gorbachev's reign, no matter how soon it might it end.

"I think it's going to be tough for Gorbachev to meet the high expectations apparently developing among the Soviet people," says Senator Albert J. Gore, Jr. '69 (D-Tenn). "But he has consistently defied the pessimists and may continue to do so."

Gore and other Democrats say Bush should secure deep cuts in strategic nuclear weapons and embark on an "unprecedented international effort to confront the global ecological crisis."

European Missiles