Now that both parties have nearly chosen their candidates for the White House, it's time for politocos to start speculating about the number two spot. Where there's a yin. there must be a yang.
Super Tuesday was useful not so much in selecting a major Southern presidential candidate as it was in picking a nominee. And so with the rest of the primaries meaning nothing--for the Republicans at least--it is little coincidence that the brokering for the vice presidential spot has already begun. It is even less surprising that many of those now brokering for vice president were instrumental in getting Super Tuesday adopted.
The South gave the Republicans George Bush, and now the GOP has five months to find someone willing to run with him. At this early stage, Time, in a fit of self-restraint, threw out half a dozen possibilities in a mini-story this week.
Vice presidents, as a species, are counted on to deliver states by convincing people that they, as official White House Cheerleader, will be worth the regional favorite son vote. Their function ends as soon as the election does.
In personality, the VP must be as opposite to the president as possible in the name of balancing the ticket. The VP must be weaker and, if possible, shorter than the presidential nominee.
Finding someone who is a vertibrate, yet weaker than Bush, will be extremely tough for the GOP. There are plenty of intelligent, forceful, conservative and deep-voiced people out there to add non-Bush qualities to the Republican ticket, but they don't fulfill the descriptions of the jellyfish needed to make Bush look good. After all Bush just spent eight years making Reagan look good. Practice makes perfect, and George Bush has made playing the jelly-fish into an art form.
No one is predicting Bob Dole will kiss and make up with Bush to be picked as vice president. With his temperament, he will be picked Sectretary of Defense, but not vice president. Besides, Dole has too many principles to bury his hatchet with Bush the way Bush did with Reagan--unless he aims it at George's back.
In fact, most of the Republicans being mentioned for the vice presidency have too much character to be seen running behind a tumbleweed like Bush. Former cabinet members Elizabeth Dole and Jean Kirkpatrick would both quiet all the hecklers Bush would attract on the campaign trail and Congressman Jack Kemp would embarass Bush in physique alone. A photo opportunity with Kemp passing a football to Bush would end up with someone hurt.
And other Republicans, most notably Howard Baker, realize that the way to stay the darlings of the inside-the-beltway elite is to let someone else make pitches on behalf of George Bush in Alabama and kansas. Why should Baker run for the White House when he's already there?
California Gov. George Duekmajian is boring enough to be Bush's vice, but he couldn't deliver the Earthquake State as easily as another major politician would. One George is enough.
No, the only Republican who can garner a lot of national votes even in a weakened, near-comatose condition is Ronald Reagan, who can legally run for vice president now that the curtains have closed on his run as the Commander in Chief. Besides, he wants to travel now, and what does a VP do besides travel? "Bush-Reagan in '88."
Unfortunately for the Democrats, Super Tuesday didn't clear the air for proper VP speculation. It's still hard to tell their vice presidential candidates from their presidential candidates. The Democrats may very well kill themselves sifting the two groups out, but let's indulge ourselves in some of the rational possibilities.
For his part, the Rev. Jesse Jackson is already picking running mates--which should give you some indication of how good his chances are at the nomination. The Boston Herald reported last week that Boston Mayor Ray Flynn has been mentioned by Jackson as a strong possibility. But then, so have Pat Schoeder, Jim Wright, Jimmy Carter and Fidel Castro.
If Massachusetts Gov. Michael S. Dukakis does better than Jackson in the remaining contests, Jesse will probably give his delegates and support to the Duke in exchange for placing Prince Albert Gore in the VP spot. Jackson and Gore are actually close personal friends and could do all the necessary brokering in Atlanta between themselves over lunch.
But once America figures out how Northeastern Gore is, his ability to deliver the crucial South will be severely diminished. Jackson could deliver the South, but unfortunately, he would send much of the country Federal Express to the GOP. America doesn't yet have the chutzpah to vote for a Black preacher with no political experience.
And, as with Howard Baker, all the Outsiders that the Democrats dream about getting to run with Dukakis are too intelligent to get involved in a national election. Mario Cuomo, Sam Nunn and Bill Bradley would rather remain darlings of the media than play the straight man.
It's been 20 years since the party that won Texas lost the overall election, so the Democrats could pick San Antonio mayor Henry Cisneros in an effort to give Bush a battle in his own front yard. But he doesn't come from Dallas or Houston, and besides, Dukakis has already demonstrated that he can win the Hispanic vote in the South without a Hispanic to translate for him.
The fact that Bush has no recognizable heritage is no reason to rule out an "ethnic" candidate as the second choice on the Democratic ticket, but the pundits are already saying Dukakis the Greek is minority enough. The Democrats need a vice president who is non-ethnic and who is non-Harvard, which will be hard, considering everyone in the party fits one of those two catagories.
The Democrats need to call back a true mainstream populist, one who is enormously popular and larger than the gap between the parties he jumped decades ago--and one who could give the Democrats California besides. "Dukakis-Reagan, '88."
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