WHEN SKYLAB'S orbit began to degenerate, everyone knew there could be only one outcome. As the satellite plunged closer and closer to Earth, it had to plow through denser and denser layers of the atmosphere; increasing drag reduced its velocity and increased the rate of its fall. Finally, too much of its momentum had been destroyed. The situation, literally, disintegrated.

It's harder, of course, to predict the fate of a nation than it is to predict the trajectory of a satellite. But Cory Aquino and her People Power movement, like Skylab, are losing the momentum needed to keep aloft. Isolated from the left and under increasing threat from the nation's military, Cory Aquino may well find herself living next door to Ferdinand Marcos before Christmas.

FROM the beginning, Aquino's biggest selling point was also her greatest liability. Untainted by previous experience in politics, Aquino's naivete was a powerful moral highground from which to attack the blatant machinations of Marcos and his cronies. But once she came to power, her inexperience showed.

Throughout her administration, Aquino consistently has shown herself unwilling to take stands on issues, choosing--perhaps by necessity--to allow her immediate circle to run the nation's affairs. The result has been, on the one hand, widespread corruption in the executive branch, and on the other, utter spinelessness in the forging and execution of policy.

When Arturo Tolentino seized the Manila Hotel last year in what was to become the first of many coup attempts, the press praised Aquino's leniency in dealing with the rebels, who were let free. But in successive coup attempts it has become clear that Aquino's justice is not leniency, but impotence. The leader of the latest coup attempt, "Gringo" Honasan, is still at large in central Luzon with several hundred troops. While the government has been unable to bring him to justice, CBS news has found him easy to locate--and has conducted interviews with him.

AT THIS writing, the downward spiral of the Aquino administration is continuing. Military commanders, unimpressed with Aquino's brand of leadership, are increasingly drawn to Honasan; the people, seeing the administration threatened, are beginning to lose faith in Aquino as a capable president.

On the American side the situation is viewed as potentially--indeed imminently--catastrophic. The Philippines is of immense strategic importance to the United States, and the loss of a viable centrist position there will mean the worsening of the 17-year civil war, with little hope for positive resolution. Some have suggested a massive influx of emergency funds to bolster Aquino's sagging position, including both military and economic aid.

It is nice to think that, by flexing a little economic muscle, the United States can make any problem go away anywhere in the world. As Vietnam demonstrated so handily, however, this is rarely the case. While the grave economic crisis of the Philippines has certainly been an albatross around Aquino's neck, it is not the only, or indeed even the most major, of her problems. So even if American aid could suddenly put the economy on its feet--which it can't--stability would not return.

The notion of expanding American military aid is even more ridiculous. There is simply no such thing as a Third World military establishment which is genuinely interested in democracy; to call them fascistic would be overly generous. To stabilize the Philippine government by giving more money to its military, then, would be like trying to cure a cold by spending a night in the rain.

If the American government wants to try to solve the problem by throwing money at it, certainly no one in the Philippines is going to try to stop it. But ultimately the fate of the Philippines is going to have to be decided by Filipinos--working with the crumbled remains of what was, Just a few months ago, the most promising democracy in Southeast Asia.