With college costs rising at more than twice the rate of inflation and with the Reagan Administration's pruning of financial aid, paying tuition bills has become more difficult than ever for many students. And as financing a college education becomes more difficult, many administrators and education lobbyists say they are worried that the changes are curtailing the educational possibilities for both lower- and middle-class students.

While it is clear that college is more costly than ever before, no one is quite sure what effect new taxes and policies have had on the composition of the student population, and what effect they will have in the future. But even though few statistics are available, many observers of higher education say that higher costs and lower amounts of financial aid account for the decline in minority enrollment over the past decade and could lead to further declines.

They also say that the newly cost-conscious middle class students who in past times would have attended a private university might now be inclined to enroll at a less expensive public school--a change that could drive smaller private schools out of business.

"There are a lot of conflicting reports about the effects of what's been happening because there has been no conclusive study. There's a lot we really don't know," says Meredith J. Ludwig, the senior coordinator of research at the American Association of State Colleges and Universities (AASCU).

Some say that the middle class is feeling the worst squeeze from the rising costs. Because of the nature of the changes in the Reagan Administration's financial aid policies, it is members of the middle class, not of the lower classes, who are less likely to qualify for federal help.

"Though the very superior students will always have a multitude of choices because of academic scholarships, the choices middle-class students have are significantly more limited than in the 1970s because federal aid hasn't kept up with the increasing cost of college," says Michael L. Donahue, associate director of admissions at University of Michigan.

"I think that the middle-class is feeling some discomfort, feeling more constrained, because they're having to make more sacrifices," says James S. Miller, Harvard's director of financial aid.

But having to forego a summer vacation is different from having to forsake a college degree, and it remains minority student enrollments that concern officials. According to nationally published figures, both the Black and Hispanic student populations have proportionally declined in the last 10 years.

Black representation in student bodies has fallen from a peak of 7.7 percent a decade ago to 5.3 percent today, according to figures published by Newsweek.

In an unofficial study that has not been released, the United Negro College Fund (UNCF) found that a "small increase in tuition proportionally causes a drop in low income--minority student enrollment," says UNCF Vice President Alan H. Kirschner.

"A lot of it is psychological," Kirschner says. "When newspapers write about increasing costs, students think twice about even applying to college--some don't even bother because it's more difficult to afford. They just go out into the job market."

According to a December poll by the Opinion Research Corporation, the percentage of Americans who think rising costs will put higher education out of the reach of most Americans rose from 77 percent in 1985 to 82 percent last year.

Because minority students are more likely than others to need financial aid in order to attend college, they are hit hard by the combination of decline in federal aid compounded with rising tuitions.

"What has happened is that financial aid money has not kept abreast of the full cost of college tuitions and expenses," says Sarah Melendez, associate director for the Office of Minority Concerns at the American Council on Education (ACE). Because of recessions that have put more minorities beneath the poverty line, she says, today "you have a poorer population trying to pay a higher price with fewer dollars."

Though many colleges award aid to low income students and have developed programs to offset declining minority enrollment, officials say it is precisely the students from underprivileged areas who are less likely to be aware of help available to them and shy away from higher education under the perception that it is a luxury that they can't afford.

Lucky R. Gutierrez, a senior at Stanford who works with low-income high school students as part of campus minority organization, says that "kids are terrified of the high cost, but lack knowledge" of available aid. He says many of them "feel that going to college will be an additional burden on their family, and that's enough to keep them away."

And if students make it to freshman year, they won't necessarily see graduation day. Debbie L. Javeline, a sophomore at Brown, says she has seen friends no longer able to put themselves through college. "I have some anxiety myself," she says. "Will I be able to come back next year?"

Javeline says she waitressed last summer to earn money, but because of her earnings she was placed in a different financial need bracket and thus qualified for less aid. "That decreases your motivation because it seems kind of pointless to work hard," she says.

Tracy A. Matthews, a senior at University of Michigan and member of the campus United Coalition Against Racism, says she knows "a lot of students who have left because they couldn't afford to stay here. I don't know where they go, but it's upsetting--a student shouldn't be forced out of school for that."

Officials say they are worried by the consequences of what they perceive as a trend toward only the richer classes being able to afford a college education.

"If this continues then we'll have a less educated society five or 10 years from now. It's in the national interest to make an investment in education in this country to make us competitive with other nations," says Kirschner.

As minority enrollment has declined, administrators say, many colleges have stepped up minority recruiting and offered their own financial aid packages. But they have not reached as many students as they would like.

"Money is money, and when it's gone, it's gone," says Richard G. Jaeger, Dartmouth's director of admissions. He says his school is not able to give out all of the aid it would like to, and, like many other colleges, has had to resort to financial aid waiting lists, though it continues to a have a need-blind admissions policy.

Representatives of many colleges, especially small private institutions with relatively small financial resources, say they fear their schools will have increasing difficulties meeting the gap between rising tuitions and decreasing federal aid.

In a survey of financial aid administrators at 25 highly competitive colleges, the American Association of University Students noted a "trend that decreasing federal aid was causing an increase in college aid, coming to a point where the colleges were going to max-out," according to Executive Director James J. Plum.

Some officials predict that private colleges may see a substantial drop in minority and low-income enrollment if they are forced to decrease their aid. "We don't have enough money to go around," says Barbara J. Williams, associate director of financial aid at Howard University, a historically black college.

"When there is a short-fall of money at the institutional level, you tend to make offers to those who can manage with less" aid, she says.

At Howard University, Williams says, administrators have shifted enrollment by admitting more students from middle-income and affluent families in recent years. "We're having to eliminate [low-income students] from our population, which runs counter to our mission here," Williams says.

As federal aid has shifted from grants to loans over the past decade, there has been concern over the burden of debt that students are taking on in order to put themselves through college. Many officials say they think that large debts influence a student's choice of major and career as they think ahead to the loans they must pay back after graduation.

National studies show that minorities and women are more fearful to take on debt and have a harder time paying loans back because of disparities in income with their white male counterparts.

Kirschner says that increasing loans and decreasing grants to low-income students "is like taking federal financial aid away from them" because they fear taking on debts and because it "is more difficult for them to pay back after graduation."

There appear to be more middle-class students forsaking enrollment at expensive private universities in favor of cheaper public colleges.

According to published reports, the percentage of students at public universities with family incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 has almost doubled, rising from 16.5 percent to more than 32 percent in the last five years.

More and more students seem to be asking if the education they can get at a private university is proportionately better than the one they could get at a more affordable public university. Some say that the private colleges are pricing themselves out of the market with increasing tuitions.

"A lot of kids in my hometown denied private universities in lieu of state schools. I think private universities have definite advantages that sometimes have to be forgotten because of costs," Javeline says.

Though colleges may be perceived as greedy gobblers of government money, school administrators say they are being forced to raise tuitions to compensate for the inflation of the 1970s, which forced them to operate under limited budgets.

"I can see the federal position--why should tax payers support students through one kind of school when one that costs three times less has the same programs?" asks Donahue.

The reasons for increasing tuitions and decreasing financial aid may be sound, but as Columbia senior Winston A. Willis says, "obviously the educational system will continue, but it won't be as diverse. It will suffer without input from Black and minority minds."

The Costs

In 1986-87 the basic charges at Harvard and Radcliffe for a resident student are as follows:

Direct expenses billed by the University Tuition  $11,390 College Facilities Fee  $835 Room  $ 1,885 Board  $ 2,035 Sub-Total  $ $16,145 Personal expenses including books and supplies  $ 1,255 TOTAL RESIDENT BUDGET  $ 17,400

To this total ($17 ,400) must be added an allowance for travel to and from Cambridge twice each year.