Admit it, cynical Red Sox fans: you're starting to believe.

The Sox have survived a slump and taken a six-game lead--eight in the lost column--in the American League East. With miracle finishes like Rich Gedman's pinch hit grand slam Sunday, the home team may actually have regained the blessings of the baseball gods who deserted it so many years ago when it traded Babe Ruth to the Yankees, ending the first dynasty of baseball Boston.

Since 1918, the last time the Red Sox won the World Series, the hearts of Boston's long-suffering throng have been torn asunder by the team's uncanny ability--especially in recent years--to lose, no matter how good the chances of winning seem. Years like 1946, 1949, 1972, 1974, and 1978 proved that the Sox are a team of destiny--but crown back home.

What other team could have devised a way to lose in those five fateful years? What other team would have let a runner (Enos Slaughter of the St. Louis Cardinals) score from first base on a single to win the 1946 world series, or seen its pennant-clinching runner (Luis Aparichio) stumble in the basepaths just before he would score, or let one of its ace hurlers give up a home run to Bucky Dent in the division-deciding game against the Yankees in 1978?

That's why even (or especially) diehard Sox fans viewing this year's pennant race totter in the volatile area between grim cynicism and disbelieving joy as the BoSox strengthen their hold on baseball's strongest division. Trusting a team that's hurt you is difficult. Boston fans should know not to excite themselves over silly little 13-game leads, like the one the Sox blew eight years ago.

But this year will be different. Because the Red Sox, apart from their admittedly splendid luck, are really, honestly, truly, I swear to God, the best team in their division and in their league. Do I protest ***.

The Red Sox will win the American League pennant this year because of their pitching. That good pitching wins ball games is a cliche, but nothing becomes cliched without being somewhat true. When was the last time any other team in the league had such a strong starting rotation? One has to look back a decade, to Baltimore's Palmer-Cuellar-Dobson-MacInally rotation to find such an agglomeration of hurlers on one American League team. Nor have the Sox, who now sport the rotation of Clemens-Boyd-Hurst-Seaver-Nipper, boasted such pitching in a decade. One wonders whether Clemens, Boyd and Hurst would have all won 20 games if Hurst's leg and Boyd's head muscles had been in working order earlier in the season.

The Red Sox' record becomes all the more impressive when one realizes that the eight regulars have been having fairly average years. Since when does Jim Rice have fewer than a dozen homers a month after the All-Star break? Since when does Bill Buckner struggle to reach the .250 plateau? Since when does any team win with shortstops named Rey Quinones and Ed Romero?

You can believe in the Red Sox this year for another good reason--the lack of any really strong contenders. For years, the Red Sox were known for their booming bats and terrible pitching, but this year, the tables are turned on the rest of the division.

In New York, Ron Guidry is washed up and Joe Niekro has a 9.71 earned runs average in his last eight starts. The Yankees last week started two pitchers, Al Holland and Tim Stoddard, who had not started for four years. Meanwhile, in Baltimore, manager Earl Weaver was using former Cy Young award winner Mike Flanagan in relief. The only team in the division whose record matches up with Boston's against the East is the Toronto Blue Jays. The Red Sox are certainly not one of baseball's all-time great teams, but for the rest of the year they should beat up on the rag-tag collections of spare parts they're competing against.

Red Sox fans have watched enough late-season collapses to imagine their team in a swoon to rival 1978's as soon as Clemens loses again. But those who don't believe now will in October when the BoSox to Shea Stadium.