"So, Jon," friends often come up to me and ask, "just why does the Harvard women's basketball team have an 8-16 record?"

Until now, I've just winked and jabbed my temple with a forefinger, a bluff which is tremendously effective.

'Ah," they think, "he knows the answer, but doesn't want to tell. Wow, it must be really explosive, and he's probably waiting to spring it as a front-page Crimson exclusive."

Actually, my gesture has been equivalent to, "your guess is as good as mine."

There are some obvious factors behind the record--like youth (six freshmen) and road troubles (where Harvard is 0-12)--but there has to be a more specific reason.

And now I think I've found it

Free throws

That's right, tree throws. Say the words over to yourself. "Free throws "Caress them with your tongue. Get used to them because they're going to play a key role in the rest of this column.

The Crimson has been outscored 391-237 from the foul line this year, or by an average of six-and-a-half points (16.3 points per game to 9.9 ppg) in each of its 24 contests.

Overall, the cagers have been outscored 1569-1489, or an average of only three-and-a-half points per game (65.4 ppg--62.0 ppg).

Take away the free throw differential, and Harvard would be outscoring its opponents by three points a game Not a lot, but certainly enough to produce an above 500 team

In the eight games that the hoopsters have won, they've outscored their opponents from the charity stripe four times.

But in each of the 16 Crimson defeats, the opposition has hit for more points from the foul line than the Cantaps.

Put another way. Harvard is 4-0 when it converts more free throws than its opponents, but only 4-16 when it gets outscored from the line.

In fact, in eight of the cagers' 16 losses, their free throw deficit has been more than the margin of defeat.

The problem is not unique to this year's Crimson squad. Last year's team was outscored 378-199 from the foul line, while the 1982-83 cagers suffered from a 386-275 deficit.

One cause which you can rule out is accuracy. The Cantabs have such 60.3 percent of their free throws this year, while their opponents have shot a 63.1 percent rate.

That difference would account for about a 17-free-throw advantage for the opposition, far below the actual total of 154.

No, the hoopsters are just going to the line less often than their opponents, 226 fewer times to be exact.

The reason lies, instead, in the Harvard offense, which is largely geared towards outside shooting.

Instead of working the ball inside, a strategy which invariably produces more free throw opportunities, the Crimson actually away from the outside.

All four of the cagers' main frontcourt players--Anna Collins, Sharon Hayes, woody Joseph, and Beth Chandler--are strongest away from the basket. And all except Chandler rarely score from the lane except an offensive rebounds.

In fact, guard Barb keffer leads the team in free throw attempts (62), something a guard rarely does.

And even though the team is connecting in a record 43.1 percent of its field goal attempts, it doesn't shoot well enough from the outside to depend completely on long-range shots.

As the stats seem to prove.

Advice and analysis which can be taken or left as you please.

But from now on, when I tap my forehead in response to the question, you'll know that I really do know the answer. Or, at least, I think I know it.

Fool's paradise.