KEVIN WHITE is in trouble. Now you know, in case you haven't heard the newspapers shouting the message in your ear in recent weeks. First, the media decided he doesn't deserve a fifth term as mayor of Boston, then it decided he probably wouldn't win anyway an interesting progression, based on some rather wishful thinking

Why White might be in hot water isn't hard to guess. Since 1975 his administration has been increasingly dominated--and plagued--by the growth of his personal political machine, created by White alternatively call in his election to a third term. At first, White's worries were only over whether his crew of loyal city employees would prove effective. "My vaunted political machine is moving," he said during the 1979 campaign, his fourth but the machine's first, adding. "I'm just not sure whether it's going to go forward or back up and run over me." "That fall it ran over White's opponent. State Sen. Joseph Timilty. But since then its movements have been more worrisome

The basic problem is simple Though White himself seems to have kept his own hands clean, the leaders of his machine, with his apparent approval have regularly engaged in extortion and misuse of city resources. The latter has generally involved petty acts aimed at political foes Last winter, for instance, city snow plows frequently cleared every street in certain neighborhoods, except those where White's opponents in the state legislature lived (State Rep Jim Brett of Dorchester, who opposed White's "Tregor" funding bill for Boston called City Hall anonymously to complain the response "Call your rep and tell him to vote for Tregor.") Another recent tactic has been to send policemen to rivals fundraisers to check cars license plates and make lists of opponents supporters.

But it took juicier stuff than that to convict four city officials in 1982 on a variety of charges involving tax evasion, bribery and extortion in connection with their city positions--convictions which gave momentum to an investigation of the White machine by U.S. Attorney William F. Weld '66 Quite simply, it was the blatant extortion of money from city employees, forcing them to contribute to the Kevin White Committee (the mayor's campaign fund) if they wanted to keep their jobs, which caused the scandal. The mayor can argue publicly that it's in their best interests to support the incumbent, since any new mayor would replace many employees in the process of dispensing patronage. But their loyalty has clearly paid off in more direct ways, such as gaining job protection for them when 4000 layoffs had to be made after the passage of Proposition 2 1/2 White may charge Weld, a Republican, with political motives, but Weld has a lot to go on, most of all the apparent attempt to launder $122,000 in campaign funds by giving it to loyal employees, who in turn donated it as gifts for a planned birthday party for Mayor White's wife in 1981 (The party, which would have been held at the Museum of Fine Arts, was cancelled after public outcry over its extravagance.)

As the facts have come to light, the press has not hesitated to rake White over the coals The Boston Globe led the charge last summer when it parted ways with White, who it had endorsed four times: "Of the half-dozen candidates now running," declared a Globe editorial, "any of them would be preferable to Kevin White in 1983." Since then, not only has the criticism increased, but, strangely, it has spawned another, more benign sentiment: White shouldn't run because, hurt by the corruption issue, he has no chance of winning. The New York Times jumped into the act last month with three long articles portraying White's career as approaching a tragic end thanks to his machine Time magazine chimed in with a similar piece on January 3 Globe columnist lan Menzies then summed up the prevailing media wisdom last Thursday. "If he does not run, he will be remembered, barring any indictment, for what he did for the city, which is not inconsiderable. If he runs, and gets slaughtered, that's what history will remember."

BUT MAYOR WHITE is not finished yet, the media consensus not with standing White's opponents certainly had little to cheer about when The Globe reported on January 8 that the mayor's campaign treasury was 50 percent fatter than all six of his rivals' combined Nor can they be optimistic if they remember the 1975 race well. When The Globe was investigating the mayor's fundraising practices, and Timilty was attacking corruption at City Hall and White still held on to win.

What may help White the most is the caliber of his underfunded opposition. Two rivals, Raymond Flynn and Lawrence DiCara '71 are tainted with past or present membership in that laughingstock of Boston politics, the city council, while former state Rep. Melvin King's organization has fewer funds and probably less support than when he ran poorly in 1979. Suffolk County Sherill Dennis J. Kearney and Suffolk Registrar of Probate James Michael Connolly have not yet gained widespread recognition, nor do they have the money to do so Perhaps the strongest credentials belong to Robert R. Kiley, deputy mayor in White's pre-machine years and a former MBTA general manager, Kiley, though, has less than a tenth of what the mayor has in the bank. White's clever play of briefly raising the possibility of a strong ran by State Senate President William Bulgar, a White ally, helped ensure the poverty of the anti-White forces by encouraging campaign contributors to take a wait-and-one attitude, while White built up his funding lead.

Of course, the mayor's options remain open. He doesn't plan to announce his intentions until mid-May, by which time the Weld investigation or The Globe may have around enough anti-White opinion to dim the prospects for a fifth term. But for the past year, Mayor White has consistently discussed the 1983 race in the future tense, not the conditional. And if his chances look good, he won't pass up the chance to make it two full decades in City Hall. Then, his rivals may learn once and for all that right does not always make might--at least not in Boston politics.