Gone are the days of dynasties in NCAA swimming. No longer can any team arrive at the Championships worried only about the size of its victory margin, as Indiana and then USC did during much of the past decade. Scholarship limits and the emergence of new powerhouse programs have spread the available talent among the title challengers, effectively eliminating the possibility of annual domination by any one school.
Different schools have won the championship plaque each of the past three years, and at least four teams will maintain legitimate title aspirations when the 1980 NCAAs begin March 27 at Harvard's Blodgett Pool.
Three West Coast squads, the University of Southern California, University of California at Los Angeles, and last year's victor, University of California at Berkeley, all are the potential champions, but nearly everyone's pre-meet favorite is Florida.
The Gators finished a strong third last year and return virtually intact. They have qualifiers in every event and perhaps most importantly, needed to shave only half their team to defend their Southeast Conference title and to meet the NCAA's ever-improving time standards.
"Seed times don't mean a whole lot, but based on what I've seen on the teams we've swum and from the conference meet times, I'd say we should be all right," Florida coach Randy Reese said cautiously last week. "It's hard to predict what will happen once the meet begins. Everyone prepares a little differently. But because of our depth, I'd say we have a shot at it."
Depth will indeed be the key if Florida is to triumph. While each of the other contenders has at least one man capable of winning multiple events, the Gators' strength lies primarily in their seemingly inexhaustible supply of potential finalists. As many as four swimmers from the Gainesville campus could place in several events, and if some of these high-finishers break into the winner's circle, Reese's charges could turn the team-title chase into a rout.
Defending champion Cal-Berkeley, despite massive losses to graduation, retirement, and leaves of absence, seems best equipped to avert this possibility. Superstars Graham Smith and Peter Rocca are gone, but butterfly double-winner Par Arvidsson and a host of All-Americans return. The Golden Bears strengthened themselves significantly over the summer with the addition of Canadian freestyler Peter Szmidt and high school standout David Wilson.
Third place will likely go to one of the Los Angeles schools. UCLA, with Olympic gold medalist Brian Goodell and junior college transfer Bill Barrett leading the way, trounced USC for second at the PAC-10 meet, but any Peter Daland-coached group with as much latent talent as the Trojans cannot be discounted.
Goodell, who may become the first swimmer ever to win the same three events in three straight years, tops the list of individual performers to watch. The junior from Mission Viejo will resume his grueling rivalry with Harvard's Bobby Hackett in the 500-and 1650-yd. freestyles and will watch the rest of the field finish behind him from his accustomed position in lane three in the 400-yd. Individual Medley.
Besides Goodell, there are no clear-cut favorites in any event. Arvidsson will face stiff challenges in both butterflies (probably from Florida's Craig Beardsley and Grant Ostlund), and the backstroke events are wide open. Auburn's Rowdy Gaines and Tennessee's Andy Coan both could win all of the sprint freestyles (50, 100, and 200).
The influx of new faces will be most visible in the breaststrokes and the 200-yd. I.M. Barrett won all three events at the PAC-10s; SMU freshman Steve Lundquist holds the American records in both breaststrokes and once set a world record in the 200-meter I.M.; and Scott Spann, a 1978 NCAA double winner (I.M. and 100-yd. breast) before transferring to Texas, all may rate as favorites. In addition, rookies John Simons (Stanford) and David Lundberg (Harvard) are coming off great long-course seasons and could challenge in any or all of these events.
In the final analysis, diving and relay points could well determine this year's champion. "We've got to do well in the relays if we're going to win," Cal coach Nort Thorton predicts. "Those double points [relays count twice as much as individual events in the scoring] often are the difference in a close championship meet."
Florida sports a clear advantage over its rivals for the top diving spot with Chris Snode, the 1978 NCAA three-meter champ. Miami's Greg Louganis seems unbeatable on both boards, but Snode is the only diver from the contending teams with a realistic chance of placing, and his 20 or so points could be the difference.
Those not yet convinced that Florida is the team to beat might consider this: Who would emerge victorious if one were to throw an equal number of Bruins, Golden Bears, Trojans, and Alligators into a watering hole? The answer, like the 1980 NCAA swimming champion: the Gators, who else?
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