The scenario was simple: John Connally, after a successful lope through the primaries, would come to Detroit packing a wealthy and unstoppable political force. He would later ride out of the Motor City with the momentum to carry him past a slumping Democratic challenger. The people of the United States would wake up and recognize their need for strong leadership and would call Big John back from his Texas ranch to lead the country.

For a while, it seemed to be working. Backed by Big Business, Connally's campaign, the richest ($4.3 million) of an candidate's, seemed to be gaining strength everyday. It appeared only a matter of time before the tough-talking Texan would be unstoppable. There would be no grass roots for this man: he would overwhelm an entire nation.

But with the New Hampshire primary just one day away, John Connally is losing ground and running out of money. Last week, Connally declared he will close his headquarters in states with primaries later than March 18. His once-rising star in the polls is falling. America may recognize the need for a strong leader, but if early indications are born out, that leader will not be Connally.

Connally supporters naturally deny the claim that their candidate is faltering. "We are lying in wait," August G. Fromuth, his New Hampshire campaign manager, says. "Polls have fluctuated with great gradience," Fromuth says about Connally's deteriorating showing in a recent New York Times survey. "The thing to watch is how we do in the primaries." Connally confidently foresees the downfall of former Governor Ronald Reagan, hoping to lasso many of his supporters. He asserts that Republicans are looking for a "real" conservative to challenge former CIA director George Bush. "The conservatives," Fromuth says, "want a winner."

The big man's campaign strategy has never been to take an early lead, but to "be in a position to take over the front runner's position in the middle of the race," Fromuth says. Connally is concentrating his efforts on the March 8 primary in South Carolina, the first Southern primary, where he expects to finish second behind Reagan. He then hopes for a first or second place finish in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and Illinois. Connally's greatest strength will be in these primaries, but even a strong showing here will probably not yield him the support he needs to ride home to the nomination.

He runs on the platform that he will put "a class act back into the White House," and in public settings the ex-Governor looks like he believes he will do just that. He speaks loudly and radiates force, but there is still a certain charm. The often scowling, sometimes fearsome product of the Texas oilman tradition declares that he always says what he thinks. "Anybody who thinks oil refineries are a greater threat than Communism must have something wrong with him," says Connally, and his conservative businessmen-backers smile.

On economics, Connally offers simplistic solutions to not-so-simple problems. In 1962, campaigning for Governor of Texas, Connally promised to cut the state budget by 10 percent. Six years later, it was up 63 percent. This time, tackling the federal scene, Connally has reduced his expectations, supporting a Constitutional amendment to balance the budget. Connally, of course, provides no details, saying simply he would tell Congress to "balance it" and they would. He has also promised the Japanese that unless they open their markets to more American products, "they'd better be prepared to sit on the docks of Yokohama in their Toyotas watching their Sony televisions, because they aren't going to ship them here."

In a year of Republican hawks, Connally hasn't missed a beat. He stresses the need for an extensive build-up of United States armed forces. His stance on the military is clear: he is in favor of the MX missile, the B-1 bomber, the neutron bomb and a permanent U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf. Marching alongside his competitors for the nomination, Connally is the answer to Pentagon dreams. To counter the Soviet Union's aggressive moves in Afghanistan, Connally told New Hampshire voters at the Republican debate, "I think we should use whatever influence we have to turn the world against the Russians. We have no choice but to make a very, very substantial increase in military appropriations for this nation." Connally, who was JFK's Secretary of the Navy, adds. But Connally's militarism scares as many people as it pleases.

Connally is invariably most direct when he deals with the most sensitive issues. His call for an Israeli withdrawal from all occupied territories in exchange for an Arab guarantee of uninterrupted oil supplies has drawn heated criticism from Jews and non-Jews alike. The former Governor has a penchant for tactless statements. His comment that more people were killed at Chappaquiddick than at Three Mile Island insulted many. Forceful and direct statements, however, have earned him the reputation of one who does not pull any punches. To many supporters, the 52-year-old law-firm boss is a doer, a man of action, and by merely listening to his political speeches, one might believe it.

If Connally is tactless, he is also tainted. Big John's close ties with former President Nixon and the shadows of the milk-fund scandal certainly have not helped his cause. In an uncharacteristically hesitant tone, Connally recently sideswiped a reporter's question about how, as President, he would deal with the report that Treasury Secretary G. William Miller's onetime charge, Textron Inc., bribed foreign officials. "I wouldn't pass judgment on whether or not he knew or whether he should have known," Connally said. "That's something that I don't have the information on which to base an informed judgement."

Critics argue that, of all the Republican candidates, Connally has the least right to stand in judgement of another man's past. The question of Connally's guilt in soliciting "illegal gratuities" from the Associate Milk Producers Inc. during his tenure as Treasury Secretary has not yet been laid to rest. A jury found Big John innocent on two counts of accepting $10,000 gifts;, but the other five counts of perjury, for which the Justice Department had documented evidence showing he had lied to a federal grand jury, were dropped as a matter of course. Connally proudly declares he is the only candidate "certified honest by a jury," but many do not agree.

Connally is tough, confident and flamboyant but in this year of conservative Republicans, a unique personality may not be enough. If voters are looking for war-mongering conservatism, they can always turn to the aging Reagan. If voters want something more optimistic and younger--but by all means conservative--there is Bush. With Connally, there are strings of doubt attached. The man who refused federal matching funds to demonstrate his fiscal conservatism, and secret service protection to show his closeness to the people, is running hard. But as John Connally tries to move faster and faster, he is also running out of gas.