WASHINGTON--The Commerce Department said yesterday the index of leading indicators declined in December for the second month in a row, adding to speculation of a 1979 recession.
The index fell 0.5 per cent in December, the same decline as in November, a spokesman for the department said Wednesday. Economists have often interpreted a three-month decline in the index as one sign of economic downturn.
Courtenay Slater, the Commerce Department's chief economist, said, however, that figures do not prove that there would be a recession. "I certainly would not leap to the conclusion they are forecasting an actual recession," he said.
Any recession would complicate Carter's economic policy by causing a rise in unemployment from the present 5.9 per cent level.
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