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Tom Columns

Making baseball predictions is one of America's favorite pastimes. This probably hiuges on the fact that 162 games after you've made your forecast, nobody remembers or cares what you said. In any case, never does a pre-season pass in which the average baseball buff doesn't find a preview which thoroughly angers him (or her) and prompts speculation as to the prognosticator's mental capacities. So sharpen your claws.

With baseball mania now sweeping Beantown, it is only right that we focus our predictions on the American League's Eastern Division. Rather than name the squads and their strengths from best to worst, it might be better to work from the bottom up, that is, to first clear out the deadwood.

The deadwood in the A.L. East, of course, is represented by the Cleveland Indians. A prize is offered to the first person who can name a solid, consistent ballplayer who wears an Indian uniform. Cleveland starts and ends with Gaylord Perry, but unfortunately, all he can do is pitch. Once again, the Indians will find their own quiet niche in the league's cellar. Prediction: sixth.

In baseball, dead is synonymous with old, and the Detroit Tigers fit both descriptions. Norm Cash, Al Kaline, Jim Northrup and Mickey Stanley all are names from baseball's past. All were fine ballplayers in their day. Sadly enough, the Tiger front office seems bent on developing this rest home to its fullest. No trades, no youth, no hope. The Tigers are living in the past, but are unfortunately playing in the present. Mickey Lolich and Joe Coleman can't do it all. Prediction: fifth.

Many of those whose business is baseball are predicting great things for the Milwaukee Brewers this season. And they may be right. But on paper, and on the field, the Brewers seem to be missing that certain something. They do, however, sport some fine personnel. George Scott, aside from winning the Gold Glove Award at first base, also hit .306, with 24 homers and 107 RBI's last year. Darrell Porter, at 22, is touted as being baseball's next superstar catcher. Don Money also chipped in with a .284 effort at the plate.

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On the mound, Jim Colborn (20-12, 3.18 ERA) leads a crew which was bolstered by the acquisition of lefty Clyde Wright from California. In the outfield, Dave May stands out from a generally lackluster crew. In all, a fairly solid bunch. But not a division winner. Prediction: fourth.

Now we get into the tough stuff. Boston, Baltimore and New York. The Red Sox, to begin with, won't be floundering around in fourth place again this year. The Yankees may have learned a little from their collapse in 1973, after leading the division by four games at the All-Star break. The Orioles are just plain strong, again. The question, then, is can the Sox or the New Yorkers pose a serious, sustained threat?

The answer, in both cases, is a qualified yes.

The Yankees are my choice to drop out of the hunt first, but not until late in the season. They figure to wind up about six or seven games off the winning pace. Their main strength appears to be a fairly sound mound staff, including perennial strong man Mel Stottlemyre, Fritz Peterson (who dealt his wife and his popularity to Mike Kekich last spring), Pat Dobson, Sam McDowell and Steve Kline.

The Yanks also present a powerful outfield, led by superstar Bobby Murcer and newly-acquired Lou Piniella. Murcer is, with little doubt, one of the five best players in the entire A.L., but the Yankees may be relying a little too heavily on his output.

If the Bronx Boys fill all the holes in their infield, which would be a monumental task, and everything else holds up, they will win it all. As of now, however, the crystal ball points to a long, hard, and ultimately fruitless battle for the Yanks. Prediction: third.

One of the deciding factors in this year's race may be the fact that Carl Yastrzemski's three-year, $500,000 pact ended last season. Yaz will have to produce if he wants that kind of cash back. And many people think he does and he will.

The Sox will show up in Fenway this year with a lot of new faces. Among them will be pitchers Rick Wise, Reggie Cleveland and Juan Marichal. Marichal figures to be of little help in the long run, but Wise and Cleveland form the nucleus of what should be a strong crew. Both are proven, both are young.

Carlton Fisk, Yastrzemski and Orlando Cepeda present a powerful hitting attack, and the Sox are also looking for Bernie Carbo, a former St. Louis Cardinal and Cincinnati Red, to start living up to his potential. Missing from the attack, of course, is Reggie Smith. His value to the team last year was, at best, questionable.

The biggest problem the Red Sox face, aside from the Orioles, is their knack for having petty arguments develop into major feuds, and letting the squad fall apart with dissension. If they cut out the talking and do some playing, they could be good.

The defending champion Baltimore Orioles, if they have a weakness, have kept it quiet through spring training. As usual, they have a power-packed lineup, solid defense and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Jim Palmer, the A.L.'s answer to Tom Seaver, is ably backed by Dave McNally, Mike Cuellar and Doyle Alexander.

In the field, the O's are fast and good. Al Bumbry (.337, and last year's Rookie of the Year) leads a crew of speedy youngsters, including Bobby Grich and Don Baylor. Boog Powell and Tommy Davis will be back to do the heavy lumber work.

The only real problems the Orioles face are unexpected injuries and over-confidence. The first may never become reality, and the latter will be a factor only temporarily.

The Sox, and maybe the Yankees, will make it an exciting year. But the Orioles will again carry home the A.L. East's flag. Prediction: the Orioles first, by three over the Red Sox.

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