This year's American League raises the obstacles for rationally predicting a pennant finish to an annual high. Every team in the junior, and perenially weaker, loop, has so many holes to fill that of the five teams equally justified to finish second, none should be able to win. That is why the overwhelming consensus leans toward Baltimore: the Orioles won last year, so memory over-rides the rebellion of reason at the thought of their triumphing.

But Baltimore cannot possibly duplicate last year's effort. Steve Barber, the only established starter, is suffering from his perpetual sore arm. Wally Bunker was 10-6 last year, but his 4.28 ERA is perhaps a better indicator of what to expect. The Orioles' three World Series shutouts of the tired Dodgers were more miracle than norm for a staff that compiled only 22 complete games all year. Their relievers saved them last year, but Stu Miller is approaching 40, Moe Drabowsky's 7-0 record was preceded by a 48-81 and 4.19 ERA lifetime mark, and Dick Hall is gone. Luis Aparicio, Boog Powell, Frank Robinson. Russ Snyder, and Paul Blair batted an average of 25 points higher than their career marks accumulated over a total of 39 years.

But where do you look to find a successor? One theory is that pennants are won by the men up the middle. But Cleveland's Joe Azcue is the league's only catcher to hit above .256 last year and major league catching has been universally weak since the glory days of Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Wes Westrum, and Del Crandall. Around the Keystone, the league's best combinations belong to California (Fregosi-Knoop) and Kansas City (Campaneris-Green). How many people could match Gil, Oyler, Johnson, Carew, and Adair with the pennant contender for which each is starting second baseman? Moving out to center field, the only player worth getting excited about is the White Sox's Tommy Agee.

Another equally unhelpful theory is that pitching wins pennants. Baltimore's, at best, is unpredictable. The Detroit pitchers conned most predicters last year, but Hank Aguirre slumped to 3-9, Joe Sparma to 2-7, Mickey Lolich and Bill Monbouquette to ERA's over 4.70. The White Sox starters had good ERA's but mediocre records, and a corps which opens with journeyman John Buzhardt can't be too imposing. California's roster doesn't contain a single starter sure of winning five games. The Twins' staff includes three recent 20-game winners, but only unspectacular Jim Kaat has ever had another season in which he topped 15. Cleveland has Sam McDowell, the league's best pitcher, Sonny Siebert, who threw the majors' only no-hitter last year, and three other potential 15-game winners, but led the league in disappointing performances in 1966.

Can a clue be found in the bullpens? Hoyt Wilhelm is the only dependable reliever. Remember Barney Schultz. Larry Sherry, Luis Arroyo, Dick Radatz . . . few firemen are big for more than two years.

Do managers and coaches tip the scales? If so, Mayo Smith, an eternal second-division zero, has taken over the Tigers and should offset any improvements rendered by new pitching coach Johnny Sain. Sain was replaced in Minnesota by Early Wynn, who combined with Birdie Tebbetts to get the least possible out of the Indians' staff last year. Joe Adcock, an all-time favorite since hitting four homers in one game at Ebbets Field and reaching the center-field bleachers at the Polo Grounds, is the Tribe's new manager. Oh, and Dick Williams will similarly improve the Bosox.

But still, someone's got to win. If a multi-team race is still in progress when September arrives, we predict the outcome will be: Indians, Twins, Orioles, Tigers, Angels, White Sox, Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, Senators.