Twenty years after her defeat in World War II, Japan is re-emerging as a decisive factor in the Asian balance of power. She has grown since the end of American occupation in 1952 from a destitute and demoralized suzerainty to a robust economic giant. Now ranking fourth in the world (after the U.S., the U.S.S.R. and West Germany) in industrial production, her economy expands 8% yearly, the fastest sustained growth in modern histroy. Riding the wave of this economic power, she has led efforts in recent months to mediate the dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia; and it is possible that she may someday play a similar role in Vietnam.

As Japan reclaims the political influence that she forfeited after the war, her Asian foreign policy will be conditioned by her unique economic position. Japan has built a huge industrial complex, but she lacks fuel and raw materials for her machines and food for her people. Slightly smaller than California in terms of land, Japan has over half as big a population as the entire United States. Trade is Japan's lifeline to prosperity and Asia is her most important market.

Although Japan sends 36% of her exports to Asia, only 1.9% goes to Red China and the U.S.S.R. combined. American diplomats who in the past have attempted officially to discourage Japanese trade with Red China now privately concede its necessity. Officials therefore predict an increase in exports to Asia in general, and to Red China in particular. "It is impossible for us to ignore our relationship with 700 million Chinese who live on the mainland," says Premier Eisaku Sato. "To be always thinking of that vast country in political rather than economic terms in dangerous."

Alternative Roles in Asia

Few countries in the past have been able to completely separate politics from economics, and it seems likely that Japan will be forced to choose between two alternative roles in the Asian balance of power. First, Japan might translate her industrial power into political domination. She could conceivable act as a counterweight to Red China in Southeast Asia, leading the nations who fear exploitation by the communists as much as they do "neo-colonialism" from the West. Or, second, as increased trade leads to pressure for recognition and support, Japan might cooperate with Red China.

Political Leadership

Both of these policies, however, will encounter major obstacles. Japan has enough economic power for the first role, but her armed forces are restricted by article nine of her constitution to "self-defense"; she is thus incapable of protecting other countries militarily from Communist aggression or infiltration. Furthermore, because numerous types of credit must be offered in exporting to these non-industrialized countries, trade is often difficult to engineer. And, in spite of racial and cultural affinities, bitter memories persist of Japanese exploitation and military control in World War II.

The economic success of Japan today reminds many Asians of the pre-World War II build-up, and the less successful nations are both fearful and jealous of Japan's growing power. Their reluctance to accept Japanese leadership was subtly expressed when most governments politely rejected the Japanese peace corps proposal; it was expressed more dramatically when Japan began negotiations to establish diplomatic relations with Korea, and mobs rioted in Seoul for five days to protest President Chung Ree Park's friendly response.

The second possible trend in Japanese foreign policy--closer relations with the mainland--thus appears more likely than the first. Although Japan has supported the West since the regained her sovereignty in 1952, many officials now favor a more "independent" line. Blocs of leftist opinion in Japan, represented by labor unions and student organizations, advocate a more friendly attitude toward communist nations. Premier Sato has stated his willingness to recognize Red China if she is seated in the United Nations.

And yet, it is unlikely that Japan will seek to cooperate diplomatically with Peking in the immediate future. There is substantial opposition to this policy in influential circles. And Premier Sato himself is a strongly pro-Western conservative leader in the Liberal Democratic Party; he beat the socialist candidate in the last election by a majority of 228-137 in the Diet (Parliament). "Japan maintains diplomatic relations with Nationalist China," he said shortly after his victory, "and trade with Communist China is on the basis of a separation of economics from politics," "This pragmatic division aims at increasing profitable trade with Red China while retaining American friendship.

Prognosis

For despite assertions of independence, Japan remains economically and militarily dependent on the United States. This country is Japan's most important single customer and supplier. Since Red China exploded her first nuclear device, Japan has "rediscovered and reaffirmed" the significance of the Treaty of Mutual Security and Cooperation signed in 1952. "Japan has made it the keynote of its foreign policy," says Sato, "to maintain and promote cooperative relations with the United States."

For some years to come, therefore, Japan is likely to attempt to separate politics from economics, to protect her trade relations from the constraints of partisan diplomacy. Japan is expected to continue to press for an independent role in world affairs; she may oppose American policy on many points and may move closer to a policy of neutrality. But non-alignment," says one senior Japanese diplomat. "It has never been accomplished before, the combining of industrially huge power with truly neutral leadership. It will be extremely difficult."

Some officials suggest that Japan may use her unique understanding of both Oriental and Occidental temperaments to mediate between East and West. In the future, the Japanese diplomatic corps may be used as a "bridge" for communication as well as support. Japan stands as a link between East and West in a dual sense-first, between communist and free countries and, second, between Occident and Orient. For the Japanese, China and its people are neighbors with whom historical, ethnic and cultural ties have existed for more than ten centuries. Drawing on this historical background and her growing economic power, Japan may play a crucial role in negotiating some consensus on the balance of power in Southeast Asia.