After a futile decade of trying to pick Kentucky Derby winners, I have finally formulated a sure-fire, three-rule system for doping out the Run for the Roses. It is going to make me a rich man by 6 p.m. Saturday.
Maxim number one is, as Mel Allen always used to say at World Series time, that "you can throw out the record book for this tradition-draped event." Re-member Nashua? Candy Spots? Native Dancer? They all looked like sure things. They weren't. We do not advise ignoring good horses, but the Derby prognosticator should be skeptical of any horse who looks unbeatable.
Maxim number two is to ignore West Coast horses, no matter how solid they look on paper. In 91 years only one invader from California has been able to win the Derby--the great Swaps. It takes most equines quite a while to adjust from the lightning-fast strips in the West to the sandler racing surfaces in the Midwest and East.
Maxim number three, and the most important, is that the major factor in Derby handicapping is the distance. A mile and a quarter is a gruelling route, and at this time of year there have been no major races for three-year olds at this distance. One must search to find a horse who can travel ten furlongs without suffering a coronary along the way.
This year, all the experts are convinced that a horse named Bold Lad can win with ease Saturday. On the surface, Bold Lad's credentials are very impressive. Last season he won eight of ten races including seven straight, handled all his opposition with little difficulty, and earned $387,000. This season he has won two of three. At first glance Bold Lad looks like a cinch, so the first rule of out system tells us to be skeptical.
And there are good reasons for skepticism. Bold Lad has run at a mile or longer three times. Twice he won with ease, defeating candidates for the glue factory. But in the 1 1-8 mile Wood Memorial at Aqueduct earlier this month Bold Lad tired and finished third. The experts are passing this defeat off as a fluke, but since it was Bold Lad's only real test at a distance, the Wood suggests that the sold Derby favorite will run out of gas in the home stretch.
In the eleven-horse Derby field, there are four hopeless cases--Dapper Dan, Narusha, Mr. Pak, and Carpenter's Rule. With Bold Lad eliminated, that leaves six possible contenders.
The horse who best Bold Lad in the Wood Memorial was Flag Raiser. He has won three in a row, but after opening up a four-length lead in the Wood, he barely held on to win by a neck, and the Derby route will be too much for him.
Second place in the Wood went to Hall to All, who was running eleventh at the quarter mile, closed like a ball of fire, and just missed winning. The trouble with Hall to All is that every time he runs he closes like a ball of fire and just misses winning. He seems to lack the comph needed in the stretch run. If Hall to All were running against my grandmother in, a mile-and-a-quarter match race he'd find a way to close fast and finish second.
As I studied this year's entries for the Derby, I slowly came to the conclusion that no one was capable of winning Saturday's race. I was in a quandry until I came across the chart of the Blue Grass Stakes at Kenneland Race Track, one of the many possible stepping-stones to the Derby. The race was won by Lucky Debonair, an invader from the West Coast, in the lightning-fast time of 1:49. In the Blue Grass, a horse by the name of Swift Ruler came from ten lengths behind and battled it out with Lucky Debonair in the stretch, losing by a scant half length.
Lucky Debonair is the best of a bumper crop of California three-year olds. He has won five of eight races this year, and his most impressive performance was a four-length romp in the 1-1-8 mile Santa Anita Derby. It is tempting to pick him to win Saturday, but Lucky Debonair is no Swaps, and our Rule Number Two says that California horses don't finish first at Churchill Downs.
Swift Ruler, who nearly upset Lucky Debonair in the Blue Grass, is going to win the Derby. As a two-year old he raced in the Chicago area, winning five of nine races against fairly good competition at short distances. This spring Swift Ruler's trainer shipped him to Oaklawn Park, a very low-class track in Arkansas. He won four races with case, and seemed to prefer long distances, though his wins came against rotten opposition.
One might object that Swift Ruler is too cheap a horse for the Derby, but his brilliant race against Lucky Debonair proves he can hold his own against the best three-year olds in the country.
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