Picking favorites to win the Kentucky Derby is a dangerous occupation --only three public choices in the last decade have succeeded--but anyone who bets against Hill Rise in tomorrow's 90th Run for the Roses must be on the fringe of insanity.

A fairly lacklustre field of twelve horses is likely to go to post in the $144,000 classic, but only three colts-- Northern Dancer, Quadrangle, and Dandy K. --stand a chance to upset the big invader from California.

Hill Rise lost the first two races of his career, but since then has rolled up a brilliant string of eight in a row. As the races get longer, Hill Rise seems to get stronger--a distinct asset in the 1 1/4 mile Churchill Downs endurance test. In his longest race to date, the 1 1/3 mile Santa Anita Derby, Hill Rise missed the world record for the distance by only a second.

In the Derby Trial Stakes Tuesday, Hill Rise's impressive performance scared four nags out of the Derby. Jockey Willie Shoemaker brought him from behind to win the mile event by two lengths in the spectacular time of 1:35 1/5.

Northern Dancer, probably the greatest Canadian horse in history, should supply Hill Rise some of his sternest competition. The Dancer has won 11 of 14 races. More important than this statistical evidence, however, is that the little colt--as every sports page in the country will tell you--has got Heart. He's a front runner, but never gives up when rivals come at him. Nonetheless, in his two races at 11/3 miles, Northern Dancer has been hard pressed to win, and the Derby distance may be too much for him.

In much the same position is Quadrangle, who won a brilliant victory in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct two weeks ago. Quadrangle is sharper than jail house coffee right now but he probably lacks the necessary oomph in the stretch to hold off Hill Rise.

But the real longshot sleeper in the Run for the Roses may turn out to be a 20-1 shot named Dandy K. After losing the first eight races of his lifetime, Dandy K. has begun to round to form. He won two straight, then was pitted against, Northern Dancer and lost by 16 lengths. After this humiliation he won two more, including a big upset over highly-touted Roman Brother against whom he came from dead last, 16 lengths behind, to win by a length. On April 4 Dandy K. took another crack at Northern Dancer and this time rallied in the stretch to be beaten by only three lengths. Dandy K. is looking good, and the Derby distance should be very much to his liking tomorrow.

Probably Quadrangle, Mr. Brick, and Northern Dancer will vie for the lead in the early stages of the Derby with Hill Rise kept off the pace and Dandy K. almost out of sight. In the stretch run, the leaders will fold, and Hill Rise will fly past them. Dandy K. should finish a fast-closing second, followed by Northern Dancer, Quadrangle, The Scoundrel, Wil Rad, Roman Brother, and Mr. Brick