Goldwater strategists see the Midwest as the crucial battleground in this fall's election, but one Midwestern state no one expects the Senator to carry is Michigan. There is usually a Democratic majority there and considerable evidence of strong frontlash this year, especially n the suburbs outside Detroit. White backlash is apparently not as strong in Michigan as in some large industrial states; in a key primary, seven-term Congressman John Lesinski, the only northern Democrat to vote against the civil rights bill, was beaten by his more liberal colleague John Dingell. Lesinski's defeat shows that hard work, particularly on the part of labor unions like the giant U.A.W. Local 600, can overcome backlash sentiment even where civil rights is the only issue between candidates.

The race issue will play little part in the state's bitterly contested gubernatorial race, however, for both Republican incumbent George Romney and Democratic congressman-at-large Neil Staebler are strong supporters of civil rights. Other issues have dominated the campaign. Romney claims credit for solving Michigan's financial problems, while Staebler points out that the Kennedy-Johnson Administration, not the Governor, is largely responsible for the prosperity Michigan is enjoying.

Debate on this issue is crucial, because Romney's list of accomplishments is astonishingly small. Romney could persuade the heavily Republican legislature to fulfill few of the campaign promises made in 1962. Romney was even less successful than his Democratic predecessor in his efforts to enact a badly needed tax reform. governor John Swainson's bill made it to the floor of the State Senate and almost passed, while Romney's bill died in committee.

Despite his national prominence, Romney has not proved to be much of a vote getter in Michigan. In 1962, he won the governorship by 80,000 votes--a margin much smaller than those enjoyed by other Republicans like William Scranton and Nelson Rockefeller or even James Rhodes of Ohio. In a 1963 referendum on a new state constitution--a major issue between Romney and his Democratic opponents--Romney's side won by only 7,000 votes. Last June Romney showed no particular strength in the usually accurate Detroit News poll; he led Staebler by a surprisingly small 50-45 margin.

Presidential politics has inevitably entered the state campaign. Staebler misses no chance to endorse Lyndon Johnson; while Romney has maintained a more equivocal--and often meandering--attitude toward his party Presidential nominee. Last May, before the California primary, Romney promised to have nothing to do with a "stop-anyone movement"; within two weeks, he was breaking his well-publicized ban on Sunday politicking to stir up just such a movement. It seems that the Governor had just seen some polls giving President Johnson 70 per cent of Michigan's vote against Goldwater in Michigan.

Apparently Johnson's lead has not slipped much since June, for Romney is still clinging to a charmingly ambiguous position he formulated after the Republican convention: he "supports" (but does not "endorse") the Republican ticket "from top to bottom." He never, however, mentions the word "Goldwater" in public, nor will he say who will receive his vote for the Presidency of the United States. He undoubtedly expects Johnson to win, and he is concerned, as he is fond of saying, with state problems--especially that of getting himself re-elected.

Overshadowing the gubernatorial race is the huge majority that President Johnson is expected to win. If Johnson wins, for instance, 62 per cent of the vote, his margin will be something like 750,000 votes in the state, and the rest of the Democratic ticket, headed by Senator Philip Hart, is expected most voters will pull the straight party lever. An unprecendencd number of Michigan voters will have to take the trouble to split their tickets if George Romney is to be re-elected Governor.