Russia might not hesitate to attack the United States under its present system of defenses if Khrushchev became convinced there was some probability that America might strike first, Daniel Ellsberg '52, asserted yesterday.
Ellsberg, analyzing the delicate components of deterrance in the third of his series of Lowell lectures, compared the present world balance of power to a game in which the opponents have only two alternatives--wait, or strike with nuclear weapons.
Though it has been "almost universally assumed" that a decision to launch a nuclear war would be thought "mutual suicided" by either side, Ellsberg asserted, the advantages of a devastating surprise attack on vulnerable U.S. bases, combined with the fear of being liquidated first, would make Russia unwilling to hold back its forces.
European missile bases, "subject to attack by large numbers of accurate Russian IRBM's," Ellsberg said, would disappear in the unexpected aggression.
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